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FirstAlert(tm) Daily 4/6: Cram-down?

bobfarley — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 09:34:33 +0000

- Market Commentary -

April 6, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) – President Obama has unveiled a new push to help troubled homeowners, calling for lenders to reduce the principal owed on many mortgages. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) recently said it would do just that for some underwater borrowers. Is this the beginning of a real reckoning, or is it just smoke?

It’s important to stress that the reduction of mortgage principal (called a cram-down when it’s done forcibly by a third party authority, like a bankruptcy judge) is a critical element of any real relief effort.

This is because the most troubled homeowners are seriously underwater, meaning they owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth. Given the crazy nature of house price inflation during the bubble, it’s not uncommon to see homeowners that are underwater by 50% or more.

Simply lowering interest rates on the loans won’t cut the mustard in most cases; neither will extending the term of the loans. Neither of these methods can make a guy happy when his neighbor just bought a house identical to his for half price. And that’s the crux of the problem: thousands of such unhappy guys are simply refusing to pay their mortgages these days.

Many people cite these kinds of simple math problems as the main reasons why the various schemes floated under President Obama’s Making Home Affordable initiative have failed.

But the more stubborn reason for the failure involves the degree lender motivation, or lack thereof, to cooperate.

First, let’s examine the magnitude of the failure:

Relatively few borrowers have managed to find relief under the two main programs, HARP and HAMP.

In the third quarter of 2009, 1,032,837 stricken borrowers went into a trial period under the HAMP program. Of these, only 31,382 have been offered permanent loan modifications. What happened to the other million-plus people who wanted a modification?

The answer is that mortgage servicers and lenders are going out of their way not to participate. Not surprisingly, a borrower stands a much better chance of being approved if his/her loan is being held in portfolio by the issuer.

In such cases, the lender has a lot to lose if an underwater borrower goes into foreclosure: the bank loses the difference between the mortgaged and current market values of the house, plus selling costs. If a bank does that enough in a quarter we’re looking at a big, fat charge.

In other cases, borrowers held in limbo – even ones 90 days or more delinquent – can still be valuable for accounting purposes. After all, in such cases a lender still has a $500,000 deal on the books, as opposed to a $250,000 deal post modification or a $180,000 short sale. (And yes, those are the kind of numbers we see in the former bubble markets.)

So, there are perverse incentives for lenders not to do these modifications, even when the play is backed by Uncle Sugar. And, as the New York Times pointed out on Monday, the various Obama plans all beg the indulgence of the lender: distressed borrowers cannot simply go to the FHA and get their modifications. Nothing gets done if lenders don’t sign off. Hence the dismal numbers for these programs thus far.

Now, if B of A is really serious about reducing principal on a lot of mortgages we could see a new trend emerging. But you have to ask why that would be, given the huge losses that lenders would incur – losses far beyond the numbers Washington has so far thrown in the hat?

More proof is needed before we can call a trend, or note any great success in the Obama Administration’s mortgage relief efforts. In the meantime, many borrowers will go broke paying their bubble-priced mortgages; many, many others will simply stop paying.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.sharkbreak.com

Quote of the Day: “If we hadn't put a man on the moon, there wouldn't be a Silicon Valley today.” John Sculley

Today is: Drowsy Driver Awareness Day.

Happy Birthday: Raphael, Nadar, Butch Cassidy, Booker T. Washington, Doc Edgerton, James D. Watson, André Previn, Ivan Dixon, Merle Haggard, Billy Dee Williams, Roy Thinnes, Zamfir, John Ratzenberger, John Sculley, Marilu Henner, Zach Braff.

Today in History: Earliest solar eclipse recorded by the Ancient Greeks in 648 B.C. The poet Petrarch first saw his idealized love, Laura, in the church of Saint Clare in Avignon in 1327. Dutch sailor Jan van Riebeeck established a resupply camp at the Cape of Good Hope in 1652, which developed into Cape Town. John Jacob Astor incorporated the American Fur Company in 1808. In Tennessee in 1862, forces under Union General Ulysses S. Grant met Confederate troops led by General Albert Sidney Johnston at Shiloh. Vancouver, British Columbia was incorporated as a city in 1886. In Athens, the first modern Olympic Games were opened in 1896 after 1,500 years of banishment by Roman Emperor Theodosius I. Walter Varney Airlines (the root company of United Airlines) made its first commercial flight from Pasco, Washington, to Elko, Nevada, in 1926. Hostess Twinkies were invented in 1930. Will Rogers started broadcasting The Will Rogers Program on radio in 1930. Little Orphan Annie debuted on the Blue Network of NBC in 1931. Early Bird, the first communications satellite to be placed in synchronous orbit, was launched in 1965. Sugar Ray Leonard took the middleweight boxing title from Marvin Hagler in 1987. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gains 49.82 to close at 9,033.23 in 1998, its first-ever close above 9,000.

[FirstAlert(tm) was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information. The opinions expressed in FirstAlert(tm) do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

FinancialWire(tm) is committed to serving the financial community through true journalism and providing relevant resources to investors. Standards-based, independent equity research on numerous public companies is available through the Investrend Research Syndicate (http://www.investrend.com/reports) written by FIRST Research Consortium (http://www.investrend.com/FIRST) member-providers. Free annual reports and company filings for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Investrend Information Syndicate (at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). FinancialWire(tm), in cooperation with the Investrend Broadcast Syndicate, also provides complete, daily conference call and webcast schedules as a service to shareholders and investors via the FirstAlert(tm) Network’s “FirstAlert(tm) Daily” (http://www.financialwire.net/news-alerts/).

FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation for its news, opinions or distributions. Further disclosure is at the FinancialWire(tm) website (http://www.financialwire.net/disclosures.php). Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net.

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FirstAlert(tm) Daily 3/30: Running Of The Banks

bobfarley — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 06:09:50 +0000

- Market Commentary -

March 30, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) – It looks like the U.S. Senate will soon be voting on a bill that aims to comprehensively reform the financial services industry. How worried should “too big to fail” players such as Citi (NYSE: C), Goldman (NYSE: GS) and BofA (NYSE: BAC) be right about now?

The Magic 8-ball says, “not much.” While these reform efforts (as proposed thus far in the House and Senate) could limit the ability of industry players to speculate with impunity, they lack one crucial element: no one is taking seriously any plan to cut the big institutions down to size.

You know, make them small enough to fail.

On Monday, the Senate Banking Committee voted to send its proposal to the full Senate. Observers were surprised at the speed of the move. Many expected to see prolonged debate on more than 400 amendments to the bill that have thus far been filed.

But two things happened: First, the Democrats managed to pass health-care reform legislation, giving them renewed gusto to use their majorities to pass other big pieces of President Obama’s agenda. Next, the Republicans failed to unify on a strategy for fighting/shaping/delaying the bill in committee. So it goes to the floor, with battle lines drawn on certain key provisions.

One of the biggest of these is a move to create a consumer financial protection bureau – an all-new agency charged with looking out for consumers, presumably without a dual mandate of protecting financial industry profits. As predicted, this has industry players in an uproar.

Up for debate are questions of whether the new agency will have regulatory oversight of non-bank financial firms, such as auto finance companies, and whether it will be a stand-alone or a new responsibility for an existing entity such as the Fed.

Elsewhere, the bill seeks to limit the potential damage done to the broader economy due to massive, failed bets made by banks and other financial players. Various proposals attempt this by placing limits on the amount of leverage banks can use to make these bets. But so far, what’s missing from the senate bill are the kind of “hard caps” that industry critics feel are necessary to put teeth in the regulations.

A similar bill in the U.S. House of Representatives does include hard caps. But neither bill does what many feel is necessary to prevent catastrophe: a break up of the biggest institutions.

We’re already well past hand-wringing over moral hazard: the biggest bailout in history pretty much assures that banks and other financial players will screw up again, feeling safe and secure in the supposition that Uncle Sugar will bail them out again. What’s at stake here is the degree of regulatory capture in play.

At the least, having players so big that their failure is unthinkable means that some companies are going to be a lot more attentive to the spirit and the letter of these reforms than others. And those that aren’t will likely have closer, chummier relationships with the people charged with whipping them into line.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the combined NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX 25 Most Actives and combined NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by information technology/electronic equipment, instruments & components company Bell Microproducts, Inc. (NASDAQ: BELM) trading on volume of 18,229,686 (gaining $49.5 million), healthcare equipment & supplies company World Heart Corp. (NASDAQ: WHRT) trading on volume of 206,629 (gaining $11.5 million) and information technology/software company Cinedigm Digital Cinema Corp. (NASDAQ: CIDM) trading on volume of 52,465 (gaining $9.3 million). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by commercial banks company Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. (NYSE: AIB) trading on volume of 2,493,300 shares (losing $399.5 million), commercial banks company Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) trading on volume of 431,100 shares (losing $206.3 million), and consumable fuels company Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) trading on volume of 4,357,447 shares (losing $47.3 million). Of the Most Actives, last session’s trading showed 18 advancers versus 7 decliners. Volume leaders were led by diversified financial services company Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 113,695,500 shares closing at $4.18 (down 3.0%), the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) trading 23,015,479 shares closing at $117.32 (up 0.6%) and diversified financial services company Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) trading 20,510,900 shares closing at $18.04 (up 0.8%). The complete chart for the FirstAlert(tm) Money Index Synopsis is provided by StockSmart.com, and is accessible via Investrend’s dedicated Stock Smart NYSE-NASDAQ-AMEX Summary webpage (at http://www.investrend.com/fa-index). Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” Synopses.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/index.html

Quote of the Day: “Take eloquence and wring its neck.” Paul Verlaine

Today is: Doctor’s Day.

Happy Birthday: Maimonides, Francisco Goya, Paul Verlaine, Vincent van Gogh, Brooke Astor, Frankie Laine, Sonny Boy Williamson I, John Astin, Peter Marshall, Warren Beatty, Eric Clapton, Paul Reiser, MC Hammer, Céline Dion, Norah Jones.

Today in History: Ferdinand and Isabella signed the Alhambra decree in 1492 aimed at expelling all Jews from Spain unless they convert to Roman Catholicism. Florida Territory was created in the United States in 1822. Anesthesia was used for the first time in 1842 in an operation by Dr. Crawford Long. The Treaty of Paris was signed in 1856, ending the Crimean War. Hymen Lipman patented a pencil with an attached eraser in 1858. Alaska was purchased for $7.2 million in 1867, about two cents per acre, by United States Secretary of State William H. Seward, in a move the news media of the day called Seward’s Folly. The first subway in Canada opened in 1954 after five years of construction, in Toronto. Jack Paar hosted his last episode of The Tonight Show in 1962. President Ronald Reagan was shot in the chest in 1981 outside a Washington, D.C. hotel by John Hinckley, Jr., family friend of the Vice President. Fashion model Fabio was hit by a goose in the face while riding a roller coaster in 1999.

[FirstAlert(tm) was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information. The opinions expressed in FirstAlert(tm) do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

FinancialWire(tm) is committed to serving the financial community through true journalism and providing relevant resources to investors. Standards-based, independent equity research on numerous public companies is available through the Investrend Research Syndicate (http://www.investrend.com/reports) written by FIRST Research Consortium (http://www.investrend.com/FIRST) member-providers. Free annual reports and company filings for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Investrend Information Syndicate (at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). FinancialWire(tm), in cooperation with the Investrend Broadcast Syndicate, also provides complete, daily conference call and webcast schedules as a service to shareholders and investors via the FirstAlert(tm) Network’s “FirstAlert(tm) Daily” (http://www.financialwire.net/news-alerts/).

FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation for its news, opinions or distributions. Further disclosure is at the FinancialWire(tm) website (http://www.financialwire.net/disclosures.php). Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 3/23: Some Health-Care Players Feel The Love

bobfarley — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:30:53 +0000

- Market Commentary -

March 23, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — As expected, House Democrats passed the Senate-approved version of the health-care reform bill on Sunday night. Investors hit the ground running on Monday, boosting some big players, including hospital operators like Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC), while giving mixed reviews to insurers such as Aetna (NYSE: AET) and Wellpoint (NYSE: WLP).

Gains were led by hospital firms, including Community Health Systems (NYSE: CYH) (6.16% gain), and health insurers catering to Medicaid patients, such as Amerigroup (NYSE: AGP) (4.56% gain). But, overall, insurers saw mixed results. Wellpoint, for instance, ended the trading day down bit, at 1.05%.

It’s safe to say three things: that Monday's results may or may not prove the beginning of a trend, that it makes sense that hospital operators would see immediate gains, and that, overall, the market’s reaction to the bill passing was positive.

Without some kind of relief hospitals were facing a bleak future. The law required them to treat the uninsured, and the ranks of the uninsured have grown in the recession. Now, with ObamaCare passing, hospitals face immediate relief in the form of $940 billion in government assistance. Poorer people will have subsidized insurance policies, while individuals will be required to carry coverage.

Do we see a trend with insurers? Not likely. The mandates don’t kick in for four years, so you’d be going waaaay long to price in any increased revenues the mandates might achieve for insurers. Besides, there will be much wrangling over the mandates in coming election cycles.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Existing Home Sales for February (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 2-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases CAH, CVS, MGLN, MD at Barclays Capital Global Healthcare Conference; CRNT, SNCR, MNDO, TTIL at CTIA International Wireless Conference; DIOD, TYL, QDEL, UNTD at Sidoti & Company Emerging Growth Institutional Investor Forum; ENOC at JPMorgan Smart Grid Symposium at DistribuTECH Conference & Expo; NLC, ERII at Janney Montgomery Scott Water Industry Summit; SWN, OXY, NE, PXD at Howard Weil Energy Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.onlineorganizing.com

Quote of the Day: “Man is a genius when he is dreaming.” Akira Kurosawa

Today is: International Day of Meteorology.

Happy Birthday: Schuyler Colfax, Erich Fromm, Joan Crawford, Akira Kurosawa, Wernher von Braun, Sir Roger Bannister, Viktor Korchnoi, Craig Breedlove, Moses Malone, Richard Grieco.

Today in History: Patrick Henry delivered his famous “give me liberty or give me death” speech at St. John's Church in Richmond, Virginia, in 1775. Elisha Otis's first elevator was installed in 1857 at 488 Broadway, New York City. Theodore Roosevelt left New York in 1909 for a post-presidency safari in Africa. NS Savannah, the first nuclear-powered cargo-passenger ship, was launched as a showcase for Dwight D. Eisenhower's Atoms for Peace initiative in 1962. NASA launched Gemini 3 in 1965, the United States' first two-man space flight (crew: Gus Grissom and John Young).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 3/16: The Health Of Health-Care Reform

bobfarley — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 10:06:19 +0000

- Market Commentary -

March 16, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — It looks like President Obama might soon be signing a health insurance reform package into law, after months of fits and false starts. So, it’s worth looking some of the big pieces of that package, and what they mean for big health insurance players like WellPoint, Inc. (NYSE: WLP) and Aetna, Inc. (NYSE: AET).

First, let's point out why this is likely not another “Lucy with the Football” moment, where a final bill seems imminent only to have it taken off the table at the last minute. What is different this time is that the US House of Representatives has all but locked up a yes vote on the Senate’s already-passed bill and a separate reconciliation package including “fixes” to the senate bill.

If the house Democratic leadership can browbeat enough progressives (on one side of the Democratic spectrum) and pro-choice activists (on the other) into signing off on the Senate’s bill, then something called health-care reform will make it to the president’s desk, regardless of what happens to contentious issues like the public option.

What will it consist of? Well, we know that it will contain a mandate that all Americans buy health insurance. The mandate will have some loopholes, but it will undoubtedly lead to Big Insurance picking up millions of new customers. In recent weeks the penalties for not complying have been stiffened: they will likely now rise to 2.5% of gross taxable income for individuals.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that the public option will definitely not be in the reconciliation package. She sounds like she means this, meaning that she has the votes needed to pass the senate bill even after throwing the PO under the bus.

So, disregarding for the moment all of the fine print yet to emerge – including possible changes to subsidy rates and the strict wording of new regulations meant to open coverage to people with pre-existing conditions – we see that the broad strokes favor the insurance industry. They get their mandates and they won’t have to compete with a government plan.

The other thing to keep in mind is that major provisions of the law likely won’t take effect until 2014. This gives the big insurance players time to keep doing what they’re doing even as they gear up marketing efforts to win their share of a captive new market of healthy, young customers. So, what are they doing?

Looking at WellPoint’s February 18 10K filing, what they seem to be doing is making more money from fewer customers. WellPoint said that its operating revenue for the year ended December 31, 2009 was $60.8 billion, a decrease of $0.8 billion, or 1%, over the year ended December 31, 2008. However, the company also said that its net income for the year ended December 31, 2009, was $4.7 billion, an increase of $2.3 billion, or 91% over the year ended December 31, 2008.

Why was this? According to WellPoint, the decrease in revenue “was primarily driven by fully-insured membership declines across our Commercial and Consumer businesses resulting from the current economic conditions, as well as our strategic withdrawal from certain State-Sponsored programs.”

The decreases in revenue “were partially offset by premium rate increases for all medical lines of business and increased reimbursement in the Federal Employees Program, or FEP.”

Indeed, a WellPoint subsidiary recently drew fire for proposing a 39% price increase earlier this year in California. This seemed to go over the line, but double-digit rate increases have become the industry standard in recent years, and are likely to continue.

Looks like a big win for Big Insurance. More cherry picking, more rate increases followed soon by a lot more young, healthy, profitable new customers.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the combined NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX 25 Most Actives and combined NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by healthcare/biotechnology company Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) trading on volume of 2,100,869 (gaining $170.1 million), integrated biotechnology company Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) trading on volume of 8,157,569 shares (gaining $456.5 million) and information technology/software company Chordiant Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: CHRD) trading on volume of 5,355,605 shares (gaining $37.7 million). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by healthcare equipment and supply company Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) trading on volume of 26,992,800 shares (losing $1.480 billion), oil, gas and consumable fuels company CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) trading on volume of 2,546,500 shares (losing $991.0 million) and biopharmaceutical company MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) trading on volume of 5,197,204 shares (losing $264.3 million). Of the Most Actives, last session’s trading showed 17 advancers versus 8 decliners. Volume leaders were led by diversified financial services company Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 70,169,100 shares closing at $3.89 (down 2.0%), the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) trading 32,250,852 shares closing at $115.49 (up slightly over 0.0%) and healthcare equipment and supply company Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) trading 26,992,800 shares closing at $6.80 (down 12.6%). The complete chart for the FirstAlert(tm) Money Index Synopsis is provided by StockSmart.com, and is accessible via Investrend’s dedicated Stock Smart NYSE-NASDAQ-AMEX Summary webpage (at http://www.investrend.com/fa-index).

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Housing Starts & Building Permits for Feb (8:30 a.m.), Import/Export Prices for February (8:30 a.m.), Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), FOMC Meeting – Policy Announcement (2:15 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases BRCM, NETL, QCOM, MDVN at ROTH OC Growth Stock Conference; CXO at Wells Fargo Securities Boston Exploration & Production Forum; DNDN, CBMX, SGEN at Washington Biotechnology & Biomedical Association Life Science Innovation Northwest Conference; FSLR, FCEL, RTK, ENOC at Jefferies Global Cleantech Conference; GR, GE at Goldman Sachs Industrials Unscripted Conference; JACK at Morgan Stanley Retail Field Trip; STN Investor Day.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.rxlist.com

Quote of the Day: “Whenever there is a simple error that most laymen fall for, there is always a slightly more sophisticated version of the same problem that experts fall for.” Amos Tversky

Today is: Freedom of Information Day.

Happy Birthday: Caroline Herschel, James Madison, Georg Simon Ohm, John Butler Yeats, Marlin Perkins, Henny Youngman, Pat Nixon, Amos Tversky, Jerry Lewis, Chuck Woolery, Nancy Wilson.

Today in History: Ferdinand Magellan reached the Philippines in 1521. The United States Military Academy West Point was established in 1802. Prince Willem of the House of Orange-Nassau proclaimed himself king of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands in 1815, the first constitutional monarch in the Netherlands. Edward Clark became governor of Texas in 1861, replacing Sam Houston, who was evicted from the office for refusing to take an oath of loyalty to the Confederacy. Lawrence Oates, ill member of Scott's South Pole expedition left the tent in 1912 saying, “I am just going outside and may be some time.” Robert Goddard launched the first liquid-fueled rocket, at Auburn, Massachusetts, in 1926. U.K. Prime Minister Harold Wilson resigned in 1976.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 3/9: Waiting For Marble To Shake

bobfarley — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 07:09:56 +0000

- Market Commentary -

March 9, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — It looks like a quiet week lies ahead on Wall Street, with little in the way of earnings or economic news on the immediate horizon. Investors wait to see how the Greek Problem resolves while continuing a long night of birthing for health care reform.

That long night has moved from a night of cheap theater to a night of the soul, as one sixth of the U.S. economy – and a lot more politically — hangs in the balance. Negative PR from recent double-digit premium hikes by a California subsidiary of Wellpoint (NYSE: WLP) helped send down shares of other big insurers in the sector.

We hear that Democrats the U.S. House of Representatives are holding off on a plan to pass the Senate’s version of the health care reform bill on promises that big problem items in that bill would later be “fixed” in a reconciliation bill. It seems that the House doesn’t trust the Senate to fix their own bill, which barely passed the upper house the first time around.

Will we at least see a resolution to the Greek crisis? Depends. Last week there was bickering back and forth between the Germans, who wish to impose harsh terms on any bailout offered the Greek government, and Greek officials, one of whom took to calling the Germans “a bunch of Nazis.”

But there is firm consensus now that the country won’t be allowed to go completely broke. The stakes are too high for the EU overall and the euro in particular. Analysts fear that a collapse in Greece would affect future efforts at stabilizing the finances of other eurozone countries like Spain, Italy and Ireland.

Last Friday’s welcome news on unemployment should at least keep sentiment tentative, but bearing nonetheless. Tepid recovery is already priced in to the market, it seems. So we wait somewhat patiently as marble-strewn places, ancient and modern, are set to shake out some answers.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ARTG, CAVM, TSYS, AMD at Wedbush Morgan Securities New York MAC: Management Access Conference; BKC, DLM at Goldman Sachs Consumer/Retail Leveraged Finance Conference; CAL, GR, BA, LCC at JPMorgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference; CAT, URI at UBS Industrial Conference-Chicago; CNW, MAS, TSCO, AZO at Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference; CVX 2010 Security Analyst Meeting; FL Analyst Meeting; LEAP, CMCSA, TIVO, PAET at Credit Suisse Group Global Media and Communications Conference; MXIM, TLAB, RVBD, BRCM at Jefferies & Co Global Technology Conference; PFE, JNJ, MRK, MDT at Cowen and Company Healthcare Conference; VITA, HRC, SYK, ATEC at Canaccord Adams Musculoskeletal Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.kitebuilder.com/

Quote of the Day: "A pin has as much head as some authors and a good deal more point." George D. Prentice

Today is: Panic Day, Get Over It Day.

Happy Birthday: Eddie Foy, Howard Aiken, Will Geer, Mickey Spillane, Yuri Gagarin, Mickey Gilley, Bobby Fischer, Aaron Boone, Julia Mancuso.

Today in History: Napoléon Bonaparte married his first wife, Joséphine de Beauharnais, in 1796. Giuseppe Verdi's third opera Nabucco premiered in Milan in 1842; its success established Verdi as one of Italy's foremost opera writers. In a five-hour battle in 1862 near Hampton Roads, Virginia, the U.S.S Monitor fought the CSS Virginia to a draw. The Barbie doll debuted in 1959. The first Ford Mustang rolled off the assembly line at Ford Motor Company in 1964. A strike in 1989 forced financially-troubled Eastern Airlines into bankruptcy. Dr. Antonia Novello was sworn in as surgeon general of the United States in 1990, becoming the first female and Hispanic American to serve in that position.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 3/8: Take The Money And Run

bobfarley — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 07:09:30 +0000

- Market Commentary -

March 8, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Genevieve Hawkins) — The few earnings reports left from the likes of Kroger (NYSE: KR) and the bullish sentiment going into the trading week may be signs that stocks are going down in the near term.

Last week a better than expected employment report for February led the Dow up 2.3%, while the S&P 500 rose 3.1% and the Nasdaq climbed 3.9%, breaking through key resistance levels. Although some market watchers are pointing to the beginning of another leg up for stocks, lingering issues with sovereign debt defaults make this scenario seem unlikely. It is more likely that another crisis is just around the turn.

With earnings season over, investors will pay attention to key economic reports in the coming week on consumer sentiment and February retail sales. The bad weather in much of the U.S. could be a harbinger of worse than expected consumer spending data. International news may also come into play as it relates to debt problems overseas, and any sudden bad news could make market participants skittish.

Stocks may rally a bit, but there are too many pitfalls to expect it to continue for long. The contrarian money is on a market drop and another return to volatility.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=genevieve+hawkins to see more commentaries by Genevieve Hawkins.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Treasury auctions 3&6-month bills (11:30 a.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases AOL, VZ, LVLT, CTL at Credit Suisse Group Global Media and Communications Conference; BABY, LLY, INCY, IMMU at Cowen and Company Healthcare Conference; DENN, AZO, LTM, URBN at Stifel Nicolas Consumer Conference; HERO, KNOL, NVDA, CHKP at Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference; MSFT, CRNT, RSYS, ACTL at Jefferies & Co Global Technology Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.army.mil/medalofhonor

Quote of the Day: "Don't worry about people stealing your ideas. If your ideas are any good, you'll have to ram them down people's throats." Howard Aiken

Today is: Girls Write Now Day.

Happy Birthday: Carl Philipp Emmanuel Bach, Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr., Alan Hale, Jr., Cyd Charisse, Howard Aiken, Lynn Redgrave, Micky Dolenz, Randy Meisner, Freddie Prinze Jr.

Today in History: Very unexpectedly, Anne Stuart, the sister of the childless Mary II, became Queen of England, Scotland and Ireland after the death of William III of Orange in 1702 from injuries he suffered in a fall from his horse. Susan B. Anthony testified in 1884 before the Judiciary Committee of the House of Representatives arguing for an amendment to the U.S. Constitution granting women the right to vote. The first case of Spanish flu was diagnosed in 1918, the start of a devastating pandemic. The first stock car race was held in 1936 in Daytona Beach, Florida. The United States Supreme Court ruled in 1948 that religious instruction in public schools violated the Constitution. Max Conrad circumnavigated the earth in 1961 in eight days, 18 hours and 49 minutes setting a new world record.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 3/2: Spring Of Discontent

bobfarley — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 19:30:47 +0000

- Market Commentary -

March 2, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Are investors starting to see the recovery as a glass half-empty? There are certainly those who think that downbeat consumer sentiment forecasts in the U.S. and slow demand growth around the world will rule the equity markets. Will investors put more store in Walmart’s (NYSE: WMT) downbeat forecast than AIG’s (NYSE: AIG) exciting unit sale?

BusinessWeek’s Ben Steverman certainly found some who would. In his March 1 piece, “Investors Scorn Bullish Earnings Forecasts,” Ben finds a lot of wariness on the Street. Or is it enthusiasm fatigue?

According to Steverman, “Better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings haven't dispelled fears on Wall Street that U.S. companies won't live up to this year's high profit expectations.”

But that first part’s a kicker: Ben cites Bloomberg, whose analysts predict that, “large-cap Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to earn $78 per share in 2010.” If that pans out, it adds up to a “32% gain above 2009 earnings—the highest earnings figure since 2007 and the third highest S&P 500 earnings gain ever.”

So why the gloomy headline? Look at the recent performance of the broad, large-cap index, which has slipped 3.7% since earnings season began on January 11. As Ben points out, “The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio, or P-E, a key measure of how highly investors value stocks, has slipped 5.5%—from 15 to 14.2, based on earnings expected in the next 12 months. That's the lowest level since April 2009.”

So, companies did well in Q4 2009, but it isn’t looking so good for 2010. Stock values got a little overheated lately, and it will be hard for companies to live up to the values already booked. That view is supported by consumer company CEOs.

Case in point: Walmart, which released its earnings guidance on February 18. The company expects 2010 earnings of $3.90 to $4 per share, which, as Steverman cites, compares “to an average of $3.98 forecast by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.” This is backed by stats: fourth-quarter consumption in the U.S. has been revised downward, from a 2% increase to a 1.7% increase.

So, brighter corporate earnings forecasts would have to be supported by much stronger consumer sentiment — to a level that would not only spell brisk recovery moving ahead but validate the recovery sentiments already priced into stocks. That’s a tall order, and so far the economic numbers don’t really support that happening.

But, as Steverman says, “If U.S. companies do fulfill those earnings expectations, their stocks will turn out to have been great deals at today's prices.”

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ADEP, VTRO, PVSW, PKT at America's Growth Capital InfoSec and West Coast Emerging Growth Conference; APC Investor Conference; AXP, CAT, BIDU, MA at CLSA AsiaUSA Forum; BP Presentation and Conference Call; BSX, ACOR, MYGN, JNJ at RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Conference; CHK, OII, CNX at Simmons & Company International Energy Conference; COLB, CYN, CATY, WAL at Sandler O'Neill & Partners West Coast Financial Services; EEP Analyst Meeting; ERII at Friedman Billings Ramsey Capital Markets Water Investment Conference; GG at BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference; HIW, DFT, CPT, SKT at Citi Global Property CEO Conference; MSFT, HPQ, BRCM, VMW at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference; OSK, HUBB. GE, URI at ISI Group Industrial Conference; PRE, ACGL, MMC, GNW at The Association of Insurance and Financial Analysts (AIFA) 35th Annual Conference; SD Analyst Meeting; TSCO Investment Community Meeting; VZ at HIMSS 2010; WBSN Analyst Briefing.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.nea.org/readacross/index.html

Quote of the Day: “One Galileo in two thousand years is enough.” Pope Pius XII

Today is: Read Across America Day.

Happy Birthday: Thomas Bodley, Joel Roberts Poinsett, Sam Houston, Dr. Seuss, Mel Ott, Desi Arnaz, Mikhail Gorbachev, John Irving, Lou Reed, Peter Straub, Eddie Money, Gates McFadden, Karen Carpenter, Laraine Newman, Ian Woosnam, Jon Bon Jovi.

Today in History: Alexander II became Tsar of Russia in 1855. Nevada Territory and Dakota Territory were organized as political divisions of the United States in 1861. In 1877, the U.S. Congress declared Rutherford B. Hayes the winner of the election even though Samuel J. Tilden had won the popular vote on November 7, 1876. The Convention of Constantinople was signed in 1888, guaranteeing free maritime passage through the Suez Canal during war and peace. Captain James Gallagher landed his B-50 Superfortress Lucky Lady II in Fort Worth, Texas, in 1949, after completing the first non-stop around-the-world airplane flight in 94 hours and one minute. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, in 1962, Wilt Chamberlain of the Philadelphia 76ers scored 100 points against the New York Knicks, breaking several National Basketball Association records. Chrysler acquired American Motors in 1987. Data sent from the Galileo spaceprobe in 1998 indicated that Jupiter's moon Europa has a liquid ocean under a thick crust of ice.

[FirstAlert(tm) was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information. The opinions expressed in FirstAlert(tm) do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 2/23: Stored Value

bobfarley — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 07:09:46 +0000

- Market Commentary -

February 23, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — All eyes will be on the retail sector as we take in earnings news from Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Target (NYSE: TGT) and Macy’s (NYSE: M) on Tuesday. Also this week: word from the Fed, and a raft of new economic data. Will we see a flowering of jobless consumerism?

Investors will be looking for reassurance, particularly in the words of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and in the earnings statements of leading retailers.

Bernanke will be giving his semi-annual testimony to key congressional committees. Investors don’t want any more surprises. True, the Fed has signaled that there will be some tightening this year. An exit strategy. But many have interpreted this to mean that there would be less of the kind of extraordinary liquidity measures put in place to address the economic crisis.

The Feds move after Thursday’s bell to raise its discount rate, therefore, alarmed some market participants. Not too badly — as Friday’s market performance showed — but enough to prick up ears this week. Will we see a real move towards tightening, as in a raising of the benchmark Fed funds rate? Looked at one way, the discount rate rise can be seen as a measure of confidence in the recovery. But a corresponding move to tighten in a big way would be seen as a move to fight inflation.

Paul Krugman and his fellow salt-water Keynesians aren’t the only economists who fear that kind of move. They see it as a recovery-killer, and many market analysts – even those who are violently opposed to Krugman’s normal prescriptions – would agree.

We’ll also look at whether retailers are weathering the post-holiday slump well, and whether we see green shoots in spring. You can’t have much of a recovery if 2/3rds of the economy is still feeling blue. And there’s no better gauge of how that 2/3rds (consumer spending) is doing than by a broad look at the retail sector. We’ll be getting a big dose of that starting Tuesday.

Also on tap for this week: fresh data on consumer sentiment, new home sales and an update on Q4 economic growth in the U.S. economy.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December (9 a.m.), Consumer Confidence Index for February (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 2-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ACXM, DV, COCO, CECO at Credit Suisse Group Global Services Conference; ESE, CPST, SOL, STP at Piper Jaffray Clean Technology & Renewables Conference; HBI Investor Day; HOV, LEN, VMC, DHI at Wells Fargo/Wachovia Housing and Building Products Conference; MSFT, VMW, RAX, GOOG at Goldman Sachs Technology Conference; PRU, TRV, SFG, RNR at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.addictinggames.com/

Quote of the Day: “Quotes from Mao, Castro, and Che Guevara… are as germane to our highly technological, computerized society as a stagecoach on a jet runway at Kennedy Airport.” Saul Alinsky

Today is: Iwo Jima Day.

Happy Birthday: Samuel Pepys, W.E.B. DuBois, Peter Fonda, Fred Biletnikoff, Johnny Winter, Patricia Richardson, Brad Whitford, Michael Dell, Dakota Fanning.

Today in History: Traditional date for the publication of the Gutenberg Bible in 1455, the first Western book printed from movable type. The Siege of the Alamo began in San Antonio, Texas, in 1836. President-elect Abraham Lincoln arrived secretly in Washington, DC, in 1861, after an assassination attempt in Baltimore, Maryland. Walter Winfield patented a game called “sphairistike” in 1874, now more commonly called lawn tennis. The French Riviera was hit by a large earthquake in 1887, killing around 2,000. Rudolf Diesel received a patent for the diesel engine in 1893. In 1903, Cuba leased Guantanamo Bay to the United States “in perpetuity.” In 1995, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 30.28 to close at 4,003.33, closing above 4,000 for the first time. Osama bin Laden published a fatwa in 1998 declaring jihad against all Jews and Crusaders.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 2/16: Greecy-y Capitalism

bobfarley — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 07:31:39 +0000

- Market Commentary -

February 16, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Greece may be a small part of the European economy, but its troubles are making big waves around the world. Now we hear that everyone’s favorite company, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) may have hand a hand in making the mess worse by hiding the full extent of Greece’s debt woes. Plus, is Paul Krugman calling for abandonment of the euro? What gives?

As Krugman and others point out, Greece is not only suffering from the general economic downturn, but also for a decade’s worth irresponsible government spending. The latest revelation is that the Greek government sought to hide the full extent of its debts, and may have conspired with Goldman Sachs to do it.

As Sam Fleming reports in the UK Daily Mail, “The Wall Street giant is claimed to have reaped as much as £192million in fees by entering a complex currency transaction in 2001 that helped Athens borrow cash without putting it on the books as a loan.”

Greece is already in the dog house for violating the covenants all Eurozone members agreed to: they can run deficits of no more than three per cent of gross domestic product, plus they have to keep national debt to less than 60 per cent of GDP. Greece is running a deficit of almost 13 per cent of GDP, with public debt at 113 per cent of GDP.

By itself this profligacy would be worth a major slap from Brussels, but the allegations of crony capitalist deals with the Americans add major insult to injury.

What to do?

Krugman zooms back and sees the entire Euro project as something of a failure. According to Krugman, “For the truth is that lack of fiscal discipline isn’t the whole, or even the main, source of Europe’s troubles…” Not even Greece’s. He says, the real story behind the euromess lies not in the profligacy of politicians but in the arrogance of elites — specifically, the policy elites who pushed Europe into adopting a single currency well before the continent was ready for such an experiment.”

Smaller EU economies, such as (otherwise responsible) Spain, would right now benefit from having the ability to devalue their own national currencies. Instead, as Eurozone members, they face draconian austerity measures and grinding deflation.

Krugman’s big beef these days seems to be with deficit hawks, who ignore Keynesian calls to ignore deficits for the time being in order to re-inflate national economies.

One thing seems clear, though: As Eurozone members, neither Spain nor Greece is in any current danger of undertaking a military coup or civil war as a result of current crises. This would likely not have been the case just 35 years ago, had similar economic circumstances prevailed.

And that points out the true purpose of currency integration in Europe: it was part of a larger project aimed at political stability and the avoidance of war. Sure, economists are right to point out that such grandiose schemes involving money and economic integration should be seen in a purely economic light. But as Krugman well knows, separating politics from economic policy is a dream that only the sheltered and the simple dare dream.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury Int'l Capital Flows for December (9 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3&6-month bills (11:30 a.m.), NAHB Housing Market Index for December (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases GIS, CAG, SLE, HSY at CAGNY Conference; ISCO, OSIR, ASTM, CGCP at RRY Publications Stem Cell Summit; RZ at Green Power GeoPower Americas Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://kennychesney.com/

Quote of the Day: “There's a saying among prospectors: 'Go out looking for one thing, and that's all you'll ever find.'“ Robert Flaherty

Today is: International Pancake Day, Mardi Gras.

Happy Birthday: Edgar Bergen, Hugh Beaumont, Tom Kennedy, Sonny Bono, William Katt, LeVar Burton, Ice-T, John McEnroe.

Today in History: Studebaker Brothers wagon company, precursor of the automobile manufacturer, was established in 1852. The National Deaf Mute College (later renamed Gallaudet University) was established. in Washington, D.C., becoming the first school for the advanced education of the deaf in 1857. Howard Carter unsealed the burial chamber of Pharaoh Tutankhamun in 1923. Wallace H. Carothers received a patent for nylon in 1937.

FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation for its news, opinions or distributions. Further disclosure is at the FinancialWire(tm) web site (http://www.financialwire.net/disclosures.php). Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 2/9: iShrug

bobfarley — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 07:09:43 +0000

- Market Commentary -

February 9, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Have you been bothered by your own tepid, underwhelmed reaction to the introduction of Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) latest product, the iPad? Take heart: new surveys say you’re not alone, or crazy.

Like many people I was nonplussed by the iPad. But I was also disturbed as hell by that reaction. After all, the economy remains in the doldrums, and no one seems to have a handle on fixing it. But Apple has consistently provided a gleaming ray of hope in this gloom: here was a company that seemed to GET IT, no matter how dark the times were.

With the iPhone, and the new Macs, Apple grew and prospered and helped to remind us that life, and innovation and success would go on.

We were ready for more when Steve Jobs took to the stage at the 2010 Consumer Electronics Show – amid much hype — to give us… the iPad. The device was immediately famous around the world. Awareness of its features, price and design grew at lightning speed. But then came the global shrug.

According to Sci-Tech Today’s Adam Dickter, “Surveys by Retrevo Pulse and ChangeWave found market awareness but few people who plan to buy an iPad.”

Retrevo Pulse’s survey of 1,000 people found that, in the days immediately following the launch, awareness of the iPad grew, but “the number of those who knew about it but were not interested doubled from 26 percent to 52 percent.”

Larry Magid, writing for CBSNews.com and Mercury News, finds the iPad “underwhelming” and tells us why. Part of this was the enormous hype that preceded the introduction.

Says Magid, “Had Apple called this device the 'iPod touch 2,' I would have praised it as a really good follow-up to an excellent product. I would have still questioned whether there is a market for a device that's too big to put in your pocket but not as easy to type on as a laptop, but I would have given Apple the benefit of the doubt, just as I did with Lenovo.”

(It’s kind of like Obama’s health care plan: if he’d simply called it, “RomneyCare Maximus,” it might not have been such a raging, scary disappointment.)

Performance-wise, the iPad promises to be a bit better than an iPhone, but not up to speed as a notebook. Hence the talk of stripped down hardware and apps; no Word, much less Autocad. No 500 gig harddrive, etc. etc. It’s a lame little computer but an impressive cell-phone with a huge screen.

Then there’s the AT&T angle. According to Wired, the iPad is set up for a SIM card, but not the same one that’s currently in your smartphone. The idea is to get more people paying monthly for AT&T’s data plan, rather than just popping their iPhone SIM into their iPad on the fly. Lame. Lame. Lame.

This gets at the heart of my own unease about this product. Tablet computers are a fine adjunct to the smartphone and laptop, for the man who has everything. But they are a luxury item – one that will do little to increase most peoples’ work productivity. In these dark times few can afford such gizmos. Especially at $500 a pop.

It’s the out-of-touched-ness of the whole thing that rankles. All this hype for a yuppie toy. One that demands that you pay yet another cell phone bill each month. What we don’t need these days is yet another example of clueless corporate hacks foisting more consumer electronic flotsam at a beleaguered populace and calling it “magical.”

We need the technology equivalent of Victory Gardens, or at least products that don’t take us all for bored fools with lots of room on our credit cards.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Wholesale Inventories for December (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases CYTR, MNKD, PARD, HGSI at Biotechnology Industry Organization CEO & Investor Conference; HCBK, SBNY, COLB, HTS at Sterne, Agee & Leach Financial Services Symposium; MD, WBSN, DRIV, STEC at Deutsche Bank Securities Small and Mid Cap Conference; ODSY, MHS, AET, SUNH at UBS Global Healthcare Services Conference; PRA, AFSI, UIHC, TWGP at New York Society of Security Analysts Insurance Conference; RHT, SAP, ADBE, ENTR at Thomas Weisel Technology & Telecom Conference; SIVB Investor & Analyst Day.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.jamesdean.com/

Quote of the Day: "Physicists and astronomers see their own implications in the world being round, but to me it means that only one-third of the world is asleep at any given time and the other two-thirds is up to something." Dean Rusk

Today is: Read in the Bathtub Day.

Happy Birthday: William Henry Harrison, Amy Lowell, Brian Donlevy, Carmen Miranda, Dean Rusk, Gypsy Rose Lee, Ernest Tubb, Roger Mudd, Carole King, Joe Pesci, Mia Farrow, Travis Tritt, David Gallagher.

Today in History: After no presidential candidate received a majority of electoral votes, the United States House of Representatives elected John Quincy Adams President of the United States in 1825. The first Japanese arrived in Hawaii in 1885. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) was established as a Cabinet-level agency in 1889. William G. Morgan invented volleyball in 1895. Daylight-saving time went into effect in the United States in 1942. Red scare: Senator Joseph McCarthy accused the United States State Department of being filled with Communists in 1950. Joanne Woodward received the first star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in 1960. The Beatles made their first appearance on The Ed Sullivan Show in 1964. In 1971, Satchel Paige became the first Negro League player to become voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 2/2: Toyota, Meet Audi…

bobfarley — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 07:09:58 +0000

- Market Commentary -

February 2, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Never has a cherished brand taken a bigger hit in a shorter period of time than has Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). But it’s worth remembering how another automaker, Germany’s Audi, fell from grace over the exact same issue 20 years ago, and how it has clawed its way back to North American respectability.

Audi was never as cherished by Middle America as Toyota. Its cars were viewed with some suspicion by the punters as small, unreliable, overpriced cousins to the more beloved Volkswagen and the infinitely more respected Mercedes. (That’s in the USA, mind.)

But Audi had, by the middle 1980s, built a solid image as a company of German engineering prowess. And whose large 5-cylinder luxury sedan, (called the 5000 in the US), had by then become a yuppie status toy.

The brand seemed poised for greatness, at least in affluent suburbia. That is, until people started roaring out of the wrong side of their garages behind the wheel of their out-of-control Audi’s. The culprit – as the TV program 60 Minutes delighted in telling the country – was unintended acceleration.

Audi then, like Toyota today, made the mistake of initially ignoring the problem, then blaming the phenomenon on something other than their brilliant engineering. In Audi’s case, the blame was placed on American women drivers, who failed to distinguish between the brake and accelerator pedals. Toyota, as we know, initially blamed loose floor mats.

Audi had a point: the pedals on the 5000 were closer together than was the norm on most passenger cars of the era. This was meant to accommodate “heel and toe” driving technique in stick shift models. The placement was, unfortunately, carried over to the automatic equipped cars.

Whatever the cause of the problem, the result for Audi was more than a decade in the American market doghouse. Only in the past few years has the brand regained the luster it had nearly achieved back in the 1980s.

Audis were nearly unsellable by the early nineties. This writer bought a 4-year old 500 turbo for just $1,900 at a dealer auction in 1990. The car barely had 50,000 miles on the clock, (and each and every subsequent act of acceleration was purely intentional.)

Of course, Toyota’s problems are much, much bigger than Audi’s. While Audi was never destined to be more than a niche player in the American market, Toyota grew to usurp GM’s title as the biggest seller of cars there. And while Audi owners put up with some extra trips to the shop (mostly electric faults), Toyota built its reputation on rock-solid reliability

Add to this the nagging suspicion that Toyota’s unintended acceleration might have an electrical, rather than mechanical origin. There are several class-action lawsuits claiming just that.

Electronic (or “fly-by-wire”) throttle systems were only on the drawing board in the eighties. Now, they are commonplace in many cars, including many Toyotas. Such systems eliminate the mechanical linkage between driver and engine, in favor of an all-electronic interface run by computers.

While these systems allow for better control over how power is distributed to the wheels, (they’re handy things to have in place when designing traction control systems, for instance), they open the door to fears of electrical glitches causing the car to become uncontrollable, Stephen King style.

Toyota vehemently denies that this is the case, and is now hard at work replacing accelerator pedals with new, improved versions. We’ll see what happens, but Toyota’s credibility was definitely hurt by its initial response to the crisis.

What it can learn from Audi’s mistakes is that an open, full investigation of the problem can do a great deal of good. Toyota can also take heart that even an arrogant, aloof response to a crisis can fail to kill a brand.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Pending Home Sales for December (10 a.m.), Treasury Sect. Geithner Speaks (10 a.m.), Auto Sales for January.

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases AEP, FE, NS, MWE at Credit Suisse Group Energy Summit; MS, WFC, COF, HBAN at Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.groundhog.org/

Quote of the Day: "History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives." Abba Eban

Today is: Groundhog Day.

Happy Birthday: James Joyce, Howard Johnson, Jascha Heifetz, Abba Eban, Ayn Rand, Gale Gordon, Stan Getz, Tom Smothers, Graham Nash, Farrah Fawcett, Brent Spiner, Christie Brinkley, Shakira.

Today in History: New Amsterdam (later renamed New York City) was incorporated in 1653. The first electric streetlight was installed in Wabash, Indiana, in 1880. In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the first Groundhog Day was observed in 1886. Dog sleds reached Nome, Alaska, in 1925 with diphtheria serum, inspiring the Iditarod race. Frank Sinatra debuted with the Tommy Dorsey orchestra in 1940. A tropical storm formed north of Cuba and moved northeast, making landfall in Florida in 1952, the earliest reported formation of a tropical storm on record in the Atlantic basin.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 1/26: Should We, Ben?

bobfarley — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 07:09:45 +0000

- Market Commentary -

January 26, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Should we all rally around Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as he seeks another term in office? Even New York Times columnist (NYSE: NYT) Paul Krugman, a man who owes his day job at Princeton to Bernanke, can only muster a half-hearted endorsement. Didn’t Ben save the Western world from economic collapse?

In his January 25 column, Krugaman lays out his case for giving Bernanke a second term. He sees that Bernanke has become a symbol for public rage over the bank bailouts and stubbornly high unemployment rates, but says he admires Bernanke, “both as an economist and for his response to the financial crisis.”

Krugman does favor the Fed head’s reappointment, “but only because rejecting him could make the Fed’s policies worse, not better.”

Such faint praise. Like many, Krugman sees Bernanke as being a part of Fed complacency in the years leading up to the crisis. “Worse, after the acute phase of the crisis ended he slipped right back into that mainstream,” says Krugman.

“Once again, the Fed is dangerously complacent — and once again, Mr. Bernanke seems to share that complacency.”

Krugman cites Bernanke’s opposition to the creation of a new consumer financial protection agency as part of that trend. Back to business as usual, folks, no need for anything that radical. No need to take that power away from the Fed, that is.

But, as Paul points out, “During the run-up to the crisis, as financial abuses proliferated, the Fed did nothing. In particular, it ignored warnings about subprime lending.”

Ahh, a key point: The Fed turned a blind eye to obvious problems, like a gargantuan real estate bubble wherein unemployed gardeners in California were getting approved to buy little 2-bedroom shacks…for half a million dollars.

So, why is Krugman nonetheless endorsing Bernanke’s reappointment? Two main things, says Krugman: “any good alternative for the position would face a bruising fight in the Senate. And choosing a bad alternative would have truly dire consequences for the economy.”

Well, OK, we don’t need any more lessons in how dysfunctional and corrupt Congress is. Not after the healthcare reform debacle. But shouldn’t the Democrats at least, you know, “send a message” to disgusted voters?

After all, it’s not like Bernanke is some sacrificial lamb, or a patsy being thrown to the mob.

It’s safe to say that the Feds actions of the past year stabilized the financial system. It’s also safe to say that such measures wouldn’t have been necessary had various watchdogs, notably the Fed, had not been asleep at the switch.

So, getting some new blood at the top isn’t such a bad thing, practically or politically.

Unless, of course, one buys into the “hundred year flood” nonsense. No one could have seen it coming!

For all of those useful idiots, well, see you at the next bubble. It won’t take a century.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for November (9 a.m.), 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins, Consumer Confidence Index for December (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 2-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases CHDX, ESRX, NOVA, MDRX at Jefferies Global Healthcare Services Conference; INO at Phacilitate North American Vaccine Forum; NXG at TD Mining Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.eatingwell.com

Quote of the Day: "I promise to keep on living as though I expected to live forever. Nobody grows old by merely living a number of years. People grow old by deserting their ideals. Years may wrinkle the skin, but to give up wrinkles the soul." General Douglas MacArthur

Today is: National Peanut Brittle Day.

Happy Birthday: Douglas MacArthur, Maria von Trapp, Philip José Farmer, Paul Newman, Bob Uecker, Gene Siskel, Eddie Van Halen, Ellen DeGeneres, Wayne Gretzky.

Today in History: King Edward III of England was declared King of France in 1340. Benjamin Franklin wrote a letter in 1785 to his daughter expressing disappointment over the selection of the eagle as the symbol of the United States; he wanted the turkey. The Rum Rebellion, the only successful (albeit short-lived) armed takeover of the government in Australia, took place in 1808. Michigan was admitted in 1837 as the 26th U.S. state. Glenn H. Curtiss flew the first successful seaplane in 1911. Former Ford Motor Co. executive Henry Leland launched The Lincoln Motor Co. in 1920. The Apollo Theater opened in 1934 in Harlem, New York City. John F. Kennedy in 1961 appointed Janet G. Travell to be his physician, the first time a woman held this appointment. Lotus 1-2-3 was released in 1983.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 1/19: OK, But Don't Do It Again?

bobfarley — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 07:09:42 +0000

- Market Commentary -

January 19, 2010 (FinancialWire) — Proposals for “getting tough” on China have flying around lately, sparked last week by the Chinese government’s recent fracas with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Google’s tough response. Is Beijing worried?

What we know of the Google incident thus far raises disturbing questions. It’s not unusual that a technology company as prominent and powerful would be the victim of hacking. That such an attack would be carried out by a government isn’t really that surprising, either. Google, after all, is the biggest distributor of information on the Web; governments of all sizes feel its power, and wish to gain some measure of control. Just ask Dick Cheney.

But given China’s history of trying to have it both ways with information – openness to the extent that Chinese business and intellectual interests benefit, then extreme suppression when the government feels threatened – the latest incident with Google is part of a disturbing trend.

Google sees it that way. The company claims that the hackers in the December incident not only made off with valuable intellectual property, but may have even raided the personal information of dissidents. This wasn’t just another crude attempt at blackout, or censorship.

According to Reuters and Cnet, Google is now looking into whether the cyber-attack was an inside job.

For its part, Google isn’t taking the whole thing lying down. In the past, the company has been accused of doing just that, and rolling over whenever the Chinese government waved the heavy hand of censorship in the company’s direction. In 2006, Google launched a special Chinese version of its site that helpfully alerted local users of content censored from search results — content that had been deemed offensive by the Chinese government.

But now it’s different, we are told by the official Google blog. In a piece titled “A New Approach To China,” the company said it will review its business operations in China in light of an attack that, while it “at first appeared to be solely a security incident–albeit a significant one–was something quite different.”

According to Google, the Chinese attackers sought not only intellectual property but information on Chinese dissidents, including the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists.

Cynics are questioning Google’s resolve. After all, Google is not the #1 name in search in China. Home-grown Baidu has that honor. The company needs to keep its presence in Chinese search, though, if it is to grow its brand in what could become the most lucrative technology market in the world. Good luck selling Android phones, cloud software, pay per click marketing schemes and other Google-branded things in China if you leave the search market, in other words.

But others seem to think that alienating a global behemoth like Google, which has a good reputation as an enlightened, progressive company, would bring shame to the Chinese. And shame is a powerful motivator for a country that wants to bill itself as the new “open for business” superpower in every way possible: Intellectually, economically, culturally etc.

We’ll see. When it comes to speculating on the Chinese government’s capacity for shame, the cynics usually win.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury International Capital Flows for November (9 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3&6-month bills (11:30 a.m.), NAHB Housing Market Index for December (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases CSR Investor Luncheon in Hong Kong; HBIO Global Investor Day; PHX, DVN, LGCY, SFY at IPAA Oil & Gas Investment Symposium Florida; UMH, LZR at NYSE Euronext Global Investor Virtual Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://mybraintrainer.com/

Quote of the Day: "I have great faith in fools—self-confidence, my friends call it." Edgar Allan Poe

Today is: Confederate Heroes Day in Texas, Robert E. Lee Day.

Happy Birthday: James Watt, Robert E. Lee, Edgar Allan Poe, Paul Cézanne, Minnesota Fats, Jean Stapleton, Fritz Weaver, Tippi Hedren, Robert MacNeil, Phil Everly, Janis Joplin, Shelley Fabares, Dolly Parton, Robert Palmer, Desi Arnaz Jr., Katey Sagal, Stefan Edberg, Shawn Wayans.

Today in History: Captain Charles Wilkes circumnavigates Antarctica, claiming what became known as Wilkes Land for the United States in 1840. The first electric lighting system employing overhead wires began service (Roselle, New Jersey) in 1883. Howard Hughes sets a new air record by flying from Los Angeles to New York City in seven hours, 28 minutes, 25 seconds in 1937. The Scrabble board game debuted in 1955. Snow falls for the only time in the history of Miami, Florida, in 1977. In 1993, IBM announced a $4.97 billion loss for 1992, the largest single-year corporate loss in United States history.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 1/12: Deal On Wheels

bobfarley — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 07:09:17 +0000

- Market Commentary -

January 12, 2010 (FinancialWire) — With the Detroit auto show in full swing it’s time to focus on the fortunes of U.S. automakers General Motors (Motors Liquidation) (OTC: MTLQQ) and Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). We could include Chrysler, but isn’t that an Italian company?

Monday’s big news from the show included a pledge from GM Chairman and CEO Ed Whitacre that U.S. taxpayers can look forward to enjoying a profit on the $50-odd billion that they invested in bailing out the company.

Whitacre faces an uphill climb: while the company has already paid off $1 billion of a $6.7 billion Treasury loan, it will have to close a successful IPO this year. And, of course, sell a lot of cars.

Ford, the company that didn’t need a bailout, did its part to feed the news cycle as well. The company swept the North American Car and Truck Awards at this year’s show, with the Ford Fusion Hybrid taking car of the year honors.

But what to do with an industry that still suffers from overcapacity, and will have to benefit from near-miracles in volume and profit per unit to make up for the historic losses of 2009?

Ford and GM both have some big news on the product front. Ford is unveiling an all-new Focus compact. The Focus has been a big hit in Europe, but that Focus isn’t the one that’s been in sale in N. America. Americans got a tired, older model Focus at a time when other companies were rolling out exciting new compacts.

Ford will also bring the successful Fiesta subcompact to N. America. Both the Focus and Fiesta give the company savvy, sophisticated and fuel-sipping small cars to sell, but at what price? Ford hasn’t formally set the price for the Focus, but industry wags fear it will be north of $15,000. Not exactly a bargain in the recession-ravaged U.S.

The company has already walked the fine-line of middle class unaffordability by pricing the revived Taurus north of $26,000. It’s a great car, sure, but nearly 30 grand for a Taurus?

GM is not shirking its technological responsibilities, either. Great progress has been made to bring the Chevy Volt to market. The EV+onboard generator marvel should best the Toyota Prius in both fuel efficiency and Green bragging rights, but will it really cost $40,000? Yikes.

Meanwhile, Korean carmakers Kia and Hyundai have made great strides in the market by offering vehicles that are class leaders in value. This is a lesson for us all, and not one that will end anytime soon.

Not only will it take many months of good news, (particularly on jobs), to shake consumers of their fear, it will also take looser credit at cheap rates to make them buy more cars.

While the Fed will probably not move the Fed funds rate upward anytime soon, it will definitely be pressured to show some discipline this year. This is already having an impact on open market operations. Curtailing purchases of Treasury paper and MBS could very well send interest rates higher. Oh, look, that’s already happening.

So, while GM and Ford are bringing exciting new products to market, the two companies will still feel the hot breath of price competition in each and every category they’re marketing in, as consumers look to stretch their dollars again this year. Even those who feel good about buying a new car.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists International Trade Balance for November (8:30 a.m.), Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ADXS, TDLP, ZIOP at Biotech Showcase 2010; ALC at Stifel, Nicolaus & Company Inc. Conference; BELM, SNX, IKAN, YTEC at Kaufman Brothers Technology Trends Conference; BSX, AET, MDCO, LLY at JPMorgan Healthcare Conference; CMG, THS, URBN, DPZ at Cowen and Company Consumer Conference; DNR, DVN, NGAS, BRY at BMO Capital Markets Unconventional Resource Conference; F at 2010 North America International Auto Show Conference; MON R&D Pipeline Review; OSUR, JASO, EPAY, POWI at Needham & Company 12th Annual Growth Conference; OXY, FTI, NE, NBR at Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference; TRBN, MEND, SNT, BDSI at OneMedPlace Finance Forum; TSEM at Sidoti & Company Micro Cap Conference; UXG, NG, SA, VGZ at Dahlman Rose & Co. Emerging Miners CEO Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.azchords.com/

Quote of the Day: “A portrait is a painting with something wrong with the mouth.” John Singer Sargent

Today is: Zanzibar Revolution Day.

Happy Birthday: Charles Perrault, John Hancock, Jack London, John Singer Sargent, Paul Hermann Müller, Tex Ritter, Ray Price, Glenn Yarborough, Henny Youngman, Kreskin, Joe Frazier, Kirstie Alley, Rush Limbaugh, Howard Stern, Oliver Platt.

Today in History: H. L. Smith took the first x-ray photograph in 1896. A long-distance radio message was sent from the Eiffel Tower for the first time in 1908. The Rocky Mountain National Park was formed by an act of U.S. Congress in 1915. New York Jets upset the Baltimore Colts, 16-7, in Super Bowl III in 1969. Space shuttle Columbia took off with the first Hispanic-American astronaut, Dr. Franklin R. Chang-Diaz, in 1986.

FinancialWire(tm) is committed to serving the financial community through true journalism and by providing relevant, reliable resources to investors.

Standards-based, independent equity research on numerous public companies is available through the Investrend Research Syndicate written by FIRST Research Consortium member-providers. Obtain reports by writing to research@investrend.com with “Report Request” in the subject line. Recent reports include Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM), Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), Novell, Inc. (NASDAQ: NOVL), Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD), Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK), Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), NetApp, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Conexant Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CNXT), Monument Mining Ltd. (TSX Venture: MMY), Lovitt Resources Ltd. (TSX Venture: LRC), Lion Energy Corp. (TSX Venture: LEO), PMI Gold Corp. (TSX Venture: PMV), Western Copper Corp. (TSX: WRN), Coral Gold Resources Ltd. (TSX Venture: CLH), Great Plains Exploration, Inc. (TSX: GPX), Kalahari Resources, Inc. (TSX Venture: KLA), Enterprise Oilfield Group (TSX: E), Sultan Minerals, Inc. (TSX Venture: SUL), Blugrass Energy, Inc. (OTCBB: BLUG), Kodiak Energy, Inc. (OTCBB: KDKN), Tamm Oil & Gas, Inc. (OTCBB: TAMO), Carbon Friendly Solutions, Inc. (TSX Venture: CFQ), MIV Therapeutics, Inc. (OTCBB: MIVI), Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX), GetFugu, Inc. (OTCBB: GFGU), SpongeTech Delivery Systems, Inc. (OTCBB: SPNG), Advanced Visual Systems, Inc. (OTC: AVSC), Axion International Holdings, Inc. (OTCBB: AXIH), Bark Group, Inc. (OTCBB: BKPG), Beacon Enterprise Solutions Group, Inc. (OTCBB: BEAC), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (OTCBB: BCLI), China Organic Agriculture, Inc. (OTCBB: CNOA), China Voice Holding Corp. (OTC: CHVC), Crystal International Travel Group, Inc. (OTC: CINT), Devine Entertainment Corp. (OTC: DVNNF), Document Capture Technologies, Inc. (OTCBB: DCMT), Duke Mining Co. (OTCBB: BXWD), Elephant Talk Communications OTCBB: ETAK), Guardian Technologies International, Inc. (OTCBB: GDTI), Home System Group (OTCBB: HYST), IceWEB, Inc. (OTCBB: IWEB), ID Watchdog, Inc. (TSX Venture: IDW) (OTC: IDWAF), Ideal Financial Solutions, Inc. (OTC: IFSL), and CelLynx Group, Inc. (OTCBB: CYNX).

Free annual reports and company filings for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Investrend Information Syndicate (at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). Recently issued reports and filings include Weatherford International Ltd. (NYSE: WFT), UQM Technologies, Inc. (AMEX: UQM), Panhandle Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: PHX), Encore Acquisition Company (NYSE: EAC), Altius Minerals Corp. (TSX: ALS), PKC Group Oyj (PLUS: PKC1V) and Standard Life Investments European Private Equity Trust PLC (LSE: SEP) (PLUS: SEP).

FinancialWire(tm), in cooperation with the Investrend Broadcast Syndicate, also provides complete, daily conference call and webcast schedules as a service to shareholders and investors via the FirstAlert(tm) Network’s “FirstAlert(tm) Daily” (http://www.financialwire.net/news-alerts/). Recently webcast company presentations, financial results & earnings calls now available include Rick’s Cabaret International, Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK) and Applied Signal Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: APSG). Recordings are accessible via the search function at http://infoescrow.net/f/?u=http://www.investorcalendar.com by entering any company’s ticker symbol into the search field.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 1/5: A Healthier Ford

bobfarley — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 07:09:20 +0000

- Commentary -

January 5, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — A recent move by Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) sheds light on the current challenge to reform the healthcare system in the US – and what a long, slow, slog in the mud it will be.

On Monday, the automaker said it had completed the transfer of billions in retiree healthcare liabilities to a trust run by the United Auto Workers, The company said the move will allow it to run at lower cost in future by offloading billions of healthcare liabilities from its books.

According to Reuters, Ford said it completed scheduled payments of over $2 billion, and had opted to make an early payment of $500 million on debt owed to the UAW's VEBA trust, or Voluntary Employees Beneficiary Association.

The VEBA trust came as a result of a 2007 deal struck by Ford and other U.S. automakers to remove around $80 billion healthcare liability from their balance sheets.

General Motors, Ford and Chrysler together pledged about $48 billion to the union-aligned trust fund to settle the debt. The provision will cover up to 675,000 retirees and dependents.

It’s a desperate move made in dark times for the automakers. Each has struggled with declining sales in key markets, with GM and Chrysler facing bankruptcy and the need for government bailout.

Any recovery push for the domestic auto business faces one steep obstacle: out of control, and rapidly rising healthcare costs. The offloading of retiree obligations only partially addresses this problem.

Enter the Democrats, and their “historic,” “sweeping” healthcare reform bill, versions of which have passed both House and Senate. The Senate version contains what many argue is a potential cost-reducer: a tax on so-called “Cadillac” plans.

The Cadillac plans are super-pricey insurance policies that have the effect of shielding those covered by them from the true costs of healthcare. Levying a draconian, punitive tax on such plans, proponents argue, would bring some consumer-side discipline by leading to a scaling back on plans at the higher end (think higher co-pays and deductibles), and a growing grassroots of political demand for an overall reduction in health care delivery costs.

Or so the proponents hope. Wouldn’t you know that the one group screaming loudest against the tax is the UAW, many of whose members enjoy the benefits of these Cadillac health plans.

Therein lies the real problem in trying to reform the existing system: you can’t bring pressure on delivery costs without taking something from current recipients. You can shift the burden off your books, but the high costs remain. And the cost of the obligations still on your books continue to rise.

Ford may now have some breathing room. But with the Cadillac tax set to be defeated before President Obama finally signs a healthcare bill, there is really nothing in the bill to keep its current healthcare costs from rising in double digits.

This makes it difficult for Ford to add to its U.S. workforce even if a recovery in auto sales would seem to justify it. Canada, with its low-cost universal healthcare, lies just across one border. Mexico is another, even cheaper option. Then of course there’s China, a country where companies don’t seem to offer any health insurance for workers.

The current legislation falls woefully short in the area of lowering costs. American workers can’t afford to wait years for an answer.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Factory Orders for November (10 a.m.), Pending Home Sales for November (10 a.m.), Auto Sales for December.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.usa.gov/Citizen/Topics/New_Years_Resolutions.shtml

Quote of the Day: “When I was young, I said to God, 'God, tell me the mystery of the universe.' But God answered, 'that knowledge is for me alone.' So I said, 'God, tell me the mystery of the peanut.' Then God said, 'Well, George, that's more nearly your size.'“ George Washington Carver

Today is: National Bird Day

Happy Birthday: Zebulon Pike, Jeane Dixon, George Reeves, Sam Phillips, Walter Mondale, Robert Duvall, Chuck Noll, Charlie Rose, Diane Keaton.

Today in History: George Washington married Martha Dandridge Custis in 1759. In 1914, Ford Motor Company announced an eight-hour workday and a minimum wage of $5 for a day's labor. FM radio was demonstrated to the FCC for the first time in 1940. The Daily Mail became the first transoceanic newspaper in 1944. Elvis Presley recorded “Heartbreak Hotel” in 1956. Major league baseball player Jackie Robinson retired in 1957.

Free annual reports and company filings for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Investrend Information Syndicate (at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). Recently issued reports and filings include Weatherford International Ltd. (NYSE: WFT), UQM Technologies, Inc. (AMEX: UQM), Panhandle Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: PHX), Encore acquisition Company (NYSE: EAC), Altius Minerals Corp. (TSX: ALS), PKC Group Oyj (PLUS: PKC1V) and Standard Life Investments European Private Equity Trust PLC (LSE: SEP) (PLUS: SEP).

FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation for its news, opinions or distributions. Further disclosure is at the FinancialWire(tm) website (http://www.financialwire.net/disclosures.php). Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 12/29: Selling Recovery

bobfarley — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 07:09:06 +0000

- Market Commentary -

December 29, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — As holiday retail sales figures stream in, it’s increasingly clear that 2009 was no 2008. The data shows more life in the consumer economy than many feared was there, and have boosted the fortunes of both Walmart (NYSE: WMT), at the low end, and Macy’s (NYSE: M), in the middle range.

The news boosted stocks overall, albeit in light trading volume. The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 10,547.08, up by 26.98 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1.30 points to finish at 1,127.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a 5.39 point rise, to close at 2,291.08.

Retailers saw a jump in online and last minute buying, according to figures reported by Bloomberg on Monday. Overall US retail sales were up by an estimated 3.6% over the 2009 holiday season. Jewelry and luxury sales were up, year- over-year, and electronics sales rebounded by 5.9 percent from November 1 to December 24, according to MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse.

The market reacted, sending Walmart shares up by 10%. Macy’s shares saw a 2.1% jump during the trading day.

Does all this mean that the American consumer is back? Maybe. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index got a boost in November, both in terms of the Present Situation index and the Expectations index. I think we’re seeing tangible proof of this in the holiday till. But many things need to happen to sustain the good mood, most notably a decrease in unemployment. But consumers will also be hampered by rising mortgage interest rates and continued sluggishness in credit availability.

But at least we’ve avoided another Christmas catastrophe at the malls. That would not have helped sustain confidence at all.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (9 a.m.), Consumer Confidence Index for December (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 5-year notes (1 p.m.).

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.sharpbrains.com/

Quote of the Day: “To retire is to begin to die.” Pablo Casals

Today is: National Chocolate Day, Tick Tock Day.

Happy Birthday: Andrew Johnson, Pablo Casals, Mary Tyler Moore, Jon Voight, Ted Danson, Jude Law.

Today in History: Texas was admitted as the 28th U.S. state in 1845. The first American-based YMCA opened in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1851. Thomas Edison patented the radio in 1891. The first college basketball game at Madison Square Garden in New York City was played in 1934, between the University of Notre Dame and New York University. Hong Kong began killing all the nation's chickens (1.25 million) to stop the spread of a potentially deadly influenza strain in 1997.

Free annual reports and company filings for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Investrend Information Syndicate (at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). Recently issued reports and filings include F & C Capital & Income Investment Trust PLC (LSE: FCI), Sarantel Group PLC (LSE: SLG), Pharmacyclics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC), Niusule Biotech Corp. (OTCBB: NIUS), JPMorgan European Investment Trust PLC (LSE: JFF), Ecofin Water & Power Opportunities PLC (LSE: ECWO), Invesco Property Income Trust Ltd. (LSE: IPI), Hansa Trust PLC (LSE: HAN) (OTC: FSBTF), Perpetual Income & Growth Investment Trust PLC (LSE: PLI), New India Investment Trust PLC (LSE: NII), JPMorgan Fleming Smaller Japanese Companies Investment Trust PLC (LSE: JPS), Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC (LSE: EDIN) (OTC: EHITF), Armour Group PLC (LSE: AMR), Bravo Venture Group Inc. (TSX Venture: BVG), Bellway PLC (London Stock Exchange: BWY) (OTC: BLWYF), Chase Corporation (AMEX: CCF), Continental Materials Corp. (AMEX: CUO), Amcon Distributing Company (AMEX: DIT), Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: EOI), Majedie Investments PLC (London Stock Exchange: MAJE) (OTC: MJENF), Morgan Stanley Income Securities, Inc. (NYSE: ICB), Grainger PLC (London Stock Exchange: GRI) (OTC: GRTGF), Eaton Vance Insured Municipal Bond Fund (AMEX: EIM), PIMCO High Income Fund (NYSE: PHK) and Shaw Communications, Inc. (NYSE: SJR).

FinancialWire(tm), in cooperation with the Investrend Broadcast Syndicate, also provides complete, daily conference call and webcast schedules as a service to shareholders and investors by the FirstAlert(tm) Network’s “FirstAlert(tm) Daily” (http://www.financialwire.net/news-alerts/). Recently webcast company presentations, financial results & earnings calls now available include InSite Vision, Inc. (OTCBB: INSV), LocatePLUS Holdings, Inc. (OTC: LPHC), Rentech, Inc. (AMEX: RTK), CytRx Corp. (NASDAQ: CYTR), Santarus, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNTS) ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMEX: ANX), Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTM), Methode Electronics, Inc. (NYSE: MEI), White Electronic Designs Corporation (NASDAQ: WEDC), Cantel Medical Corp. (EXCH: CMN), Frequency Electronics Inc. (EXCH: FEIM), Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack (NYSE: PBY) and Xeta Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: XETA). Recordings are accessible via the search function at http://infoescrow.net/f/?u=http://www.investorcalendar.com by entering any company’s ticker symbol into the search field.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 12/22: Senatorial Privilege

bobfarley — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 07:09:12 +0000

- Commentary -

December 22, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) – Leading Democrats are celebrating the imminent passage of the U.S. Senate’s version of the health insurance reform bill, whose overall passage is the centerpiece of the Obama Administration’s domestic legislative agenda. Also celebrating are investors in big health insurance firms like Cigna Corp. (NYSE: CI), Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) and Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM). Is this an eerie coincidence?

The three stocks closed at $37.19, $34.14 and $45.04, respectively, on Monday. Each posted respectable single-digit gains on the day.

A one-day bounce in these stocks isn’t big news, per se. Investors are no doubt relieved that a final form of the legislation has taken shape. But for anyone thinking this year that the Democrats’ health care agenda was worrying to the insurance business needs to look at the longer-term recent performance of these stocks.

Humana is a good example: after taking a 20 point plunge earlier in 2009 the stock has been on a steady upward trajectory since early April. Aetna and Cigna’s trajectories are remarkably similar.

At no time since March did any of these stocks plunge, not even when it looked like the “public option” would survive in some form. (Indeed, a weak version of the public option is still in the House version of the bill).

So, what’s clear is that investors weren’t buying the rhetoric of the Tea Bagger movement: that Team Obama was forcing a government takeover of health care and that even a weak public option was a Trojan Horse designed to pave the way for socialized medicine.

Investors saw three things: The first was a juicy mandate on the uninsured, particularly the young, profitable ones. They also saw, and believed in, the insurance industry’s ability to shape the legislation forcefully. Finally, they saw the president first cutting deals with industry lobbyists, then distancing himself from earlier strong support for a public option.

Indeed, the president went out of his way to let industry puppets shape the legislation over the crucial summer months. He was all but absent from the fray in August and his only address of the public option was to call it a “mere sliver” of the overall reform effort.

His right-hand man, Rahm Emanuel, did even more to beat down any pretense of a progressive revolution in health care, even bragging to the Wall Street Journal that there were “no liberals left to get.”

Investors never saw Obama as playing Rope-A-Dope with insurers, drug companies and hospital operators. No, they saw him applying the famous Ali tactic with the left wing of his own party. Or something close to it.

Politicos of all stripes will debate the merits of the Obama strategy. Progressives insist that Obama has hopelessly alienated his left wing base and that there will be dire consequences when these former stalwarts sit out the midterms. Many rightists agree with this analysis.

But Clinton-era party moderates like Emanuel are using an old and trusty formula. They legislate to the right to “get a bill done” and assume that the lefties will fall into line come election season. A lot of working poor people will get subsidized health insurance and, besides, who else is the left going to turn to?

Other Realpolitic hard cases point out that, with the likes of Lieberman and Nelson in the Senate, only an industry-friendly bill would have a hope of avoiding filibuster threats. The progressives never stood a chance.

The debate over Senate rules will heat up no doubt, but not in time to save lefty dreams of a march toward single payer. That march may come anyway, prodded on by runaway health care spending. This will be especially fast moving if hoped-for savings in Medicare fail to materialize. In the meantime, we can all marvel at the levels of corruption and cynicism on display in the sausage factory.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Gross Domestic Product for Q3 (8:30 a.m.), Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Existing Home Sales for November (10 a.m.).

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.thatwasfunny.com/

Quote of the Day: “Children are likely to live up to what you believe in them.” Claudia “Lady Bird” Johnson

Today is: National Date Nut Bread Day.

Happy Birthday: James Oglethorpe, Connie Mack, Lady Bird Johnson, Gene Rayburn, Barbara Billingsley, Diane Sawyer, Maurice Gibb, Robin Gibb.

Today in History: The Embargo Act, forbidding trade with all foreign countries, was passed by the U.S. Congress in 1807, at the urging of President Thomas Jefferson. The Non-Intercourse Act, lifting the Embargo Act except for the United Kingdom and France, passed the U.S. Congress in 1809. "The Night Before Christmas" by Clement Moore was published in 1823. Ito Hirobumi, a samurai, became the first prime minister of Japan in 1885. The Lincoln Tunnel opened to traffic in New York City in 1937.

Free annual reports and company filings for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Investrend Information Syndicate (at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). Recently issued reports and filings include F & C Capital & Income Investment Trust PLC (LSE: FCI), Sarantel Group PLC (LSE: SLG), Pharmacyclics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC), Niusule Biotech Corp. (OTCBB: NIUS), JPMorgan European Investment Trust PLC (LSE: JFF), Ecofin Water & Power Opportunities PLC (LSE: ECWO), Invesco Property Income Trust Ltd. (LSE: IPI), Hansa Trust PLC (LSE: HAN) (OTC: FSBTF), Perpetual Income & Growth Investment Trust PLC (LSE: PLI), New India Investment Trust PLC (LSE: NII), JPMorgan Fleming Smaller Japanese Companies Investment Trust PLC (LSE: JPS), Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC (LSE: EDIN) (OTC: EHITF), Armour Group PLC (LSE: AMR), Bravo Venture Group Inc. (TSX Venture: BVG), Bellway PLC (London Stock Exchange: BWY) (OTC: BLWYF), Chase Corp. (AMEX: CCF), Continental Materials Corp. (AMEX: CUO), Amcon Distributing Company (AMEX: DIT), Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: EOI), Majedie Investments PLC (London Stock Exchange: MAJE) (OTC: MJENF), Morgan Stanley Income Securities, Inc. (NYSE: ICB), Grainger PLC (London Stock Exchange: GRI) (OTC: GRTGF), Eaton Vance Insured Municipal Bond Fund (AMEX: EIM), PIMCO High Income Fund (NYSE: PHK) and Shaw Communications, Inc. (NYSE: SJR).

FinancialWire(tm), in cooperation with the Investrend Broadcast Syndicate, also provides complete, daily conference call and webcast schedules as a service to shareholders and investors by the FirstAlert(tm) Network’s “FirstAlert(tm) Daily” (http://www.financialwire.net/news-alerts/). Recently webcast company presentations, financial results & earnings calls now available include InSite Vision, Inc. (OTCBB: INSV), LocatePLUS Holdings, Inc. (OTC: LPHC), Rentech, Inc. (AMEX: RTK), CytRx Corp. (NASDAQ: CYTR), Santarus, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNTS) ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMEX: ANX), Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTM), Methode Electronics, Inc. (NYSE: MEI), White Electronic Designs Corp. (NASDAQ: WEDC), Cantel Medical Corp. (EXCH: CMN), Frequency Electronics Inc. (EXCH: FEIM), Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack (NYSE: PBY) and Xeta Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: XETA). Recordings are accessible via the search function at http://infoescrow.net/f/?u=http://www.investorcalendar.com by entering any company’s ticker symbol into the search field.

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 12/15: Long And Short Of Health Care Reform

bobfarley — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 07:09:26 +0000

- Commentary -

December 15, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — You can be forgiven for choosing not to follow the health care reform sausage making going on in Congress. It’s like an interminably long, poorly plotted mystery movie featuring a cast of small town theater players. But investors concerned with the long-term fate of stocks like UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE: UNH) Aetna Inc (NYSE: AET), Cigna Corp (NYSE: CI) should be paying attention — especially when an apparent win now for them could mean a more profound loss sooner down the road.

The first thing to get out of the way in any discussion of HCR current events is the media hype. We are not going to see a fundamental overhaul of the system, nor are we going to see a great thrust in the direction of socialized medicine.

For left-leaning advocates of Canadian-style reform, the death knell was sounded before the opening round. Not only has a single payer system been off the table since the presidential primaries, its weak little sister, the “public option” has been on a months-long fast and now cannot be seen when standing sideways.

It will be a miracle if a public option even makes it to President Obama’s desk. But be sure that any such animal that does will have neither the pricing power nor the market presence to do much in the near term to advance the cause of single payer advocates.

What will likely make it to signing, however, are new restrictions on the way insurers do business. These include an end to “cherry-picking” by denying coverage to potentially unprofitable people – such as those with pre-existing conditions – and new requirements that insurers spend most of their money paying for actual health care, as opposed to administrative costs.

Sure, these things may pinch the bottom lines of insurers, but they’ll be more than compensated for by two enormous features that will almost certainly be in any final bill. The first, and biggest, of these are individual mandates to purchase health insurance, backed by IRS enforcement. This will usher in a huge new revenue stream for insurers, with many new customers. Many of them young, healthy and profitable.

The other, of course, is the insurance lobby’s well-established talent for opening loopholes in any new legislative thrust. Notice the recent moves to allow yearly caps for health care provision and endless debates over what constitutes a “good” plan.

But long-term investors should nonetheless be concerned. While the currently forming sausage is, on balance, a big win for insurers, the win brings with it the long-term consequence of endlessly rising health care costs and increasing inequality in the system.

Individuals forced by government mandate to shell out $5,000 or more for “bronze” plans covering only 65% of health care costs will have even more reason to resent others who get premium health insurance in their benefits package. The resented will include nearly all public sector employees, at all levels. Now look at the shape that government finances are in – particularly at the state level–and the rush to impose new taxes to cover ballooning deficits. Do you think this will have political ramifications?

Never mind the march toward collapse as health care spending eats up a bigger percentage of GDP at a time when that number hasn’t exactly been growing at a healthy pace.

The for-profit insurance-centric status-quo may win in this round of health care reform, but the more it wins now the faster it will lose the bigger war. Rather than girding against a march toward socialism, the insurance lobby’s current success may just guarantee a great leap towards it in the not-too-distant future.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), FOMC Meeting Begins (9 a.m.), Producer Price Index for November (8:30 a.m.), Empire State Manufacturing Index for December (8:30 a.m.), Industrial Production and Capacity Util. for Nov. (9:15 a.m.), NAHB Housing Market Index for October (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ANX, CYTR at Lippert/Heilshorn & Associates Life Sciences On-line Forum; CTXS, LSI, DELL, MU at Raymond James IT Supply Chain Conference; DAL Investor Day; GE Annual Outlook Investor Meeting; GENZ, DNDN, HGSI, ACOR at DB-BIOTECH BOSTON CONFAB; GNW Investor Day; GOOG Educational Webcast; HRC Investor Conference; MAIN at BB&T Capital Markets Private Finance One-on-One Conference; MFB at Credit Suisse Group New York Retail Roundup.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.fiftiesweb.com/tv/davy-crockett.htm

Quote of the Day: "Look at everything as though you were seeing it either for the first or last time. Then your time on earth will be filled with glory." Betty Smith

Today is: Bill of Rights Day.

Happy Birthday: J. Paul Getty, Stan Kenton, Betty Smith, Freeman Dyson, Tim Conway, Don Johnson, Garrett Wang.

Today in History: The United States Bill of Rights was passed in 1791. James Naismith introduced basketball in 1891. Gone with the Wind premiered in Atlanta, Georgia, in 1939. The first episode of Davy Crockett aired on television in 1954. Samoa became a member of the United Nations in 1976. Netscape Navigator 1.0 was first released in 1994.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 12/8: Wing/Prayer

bobfarley — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 07:09:20 +0000

- Market Commentary -

December 8, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Investors sent stocks of airframer Boeing (NYSE: BA) up on Monday. The airline industry sector it serves has been rising for weeks. Credit good news on the 787 Dreamliner for Boeing's good fortune, while the sector is being pushed on optimism about recovery. Are we all being doped?

BA closed up 2% on the trading day, while the airline sector has broadly experienced investor enthusiasm for five weeks. Since the end of October, NYSE Arca Airline Index is up by nearly 30%.

The good feelings for Boeing were not entirely due to optimism about the airline industry. What had investors swooning was good news about Boeing’s biggest bet in the commercial sector: the 787 Dreamliner. Turns out, its first flight – which had been scheduled for the end of the year – may actually take place a bit sooner than expected.

Dreamliner has been a huge sales success, but also something of a problem child. The midsize, long-range plane booked nearly 600 orders in the months following its 2005 launch. It was originally set to be first flown in 2007, but a series of setbacks have delayed the plane’s move to production.

This isn’t entirely surprising. Dreamliner is a revolution for Boeing: it uses more composites in major structures than any other commercial airliner. While rival Airbus was an early adopter of composite airframe technology, Boeing has lagged. Still, the 787 ups the bar considerably on the use of composites versus anything else being produced in the sector.

Adding to the challenge, Boeing decided to modularize the production process, with major components being assembled at various locations then shipped to a final assembly plant and put together. Again, Airbus is ahead of the game in this respect. But while Airbus’ production facilities have traditionally been concentrated in Western Europe, Boeing’s Dreamliner team is spread all over the globe. Major structures are produced in Italy and Japan, for instance.

All of which makes delays almost inevitable. But when the delays push production of the first plane past the start of the biggest recession since WWII, the world becomes less understanding.

Will it now be a dream come true for Dreamliner? What excited airline buyers about the plane to begin – its ability to fly moderate (250 pax) passenger loads to jumbo jet distances using much less fuel per passenger mile — is still valid. An industry climbing out of recession during a time of energy uncertainty will be eager to take advantage of Dreamliner’s charms.

But what about the money? Here we hope that the global credit crunch continues to ease, and that airlines are able to raise the financing necessary to build their fleets. So far, order cancellations have not been a huge plague upon the 787 program – a testament to the aircraft’s standing in the hearts of buyers.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session’s trading showed 9 advancers versus 16 decliners. Volume leaders were led by Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) trading 49,812,100 shares closing at $15.89 (down 1.9%), Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 29,503,000 shares closing at $4.03 (down 0.7%) and Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) trading 24,805,849 shares closing at $17.27 (up 7.1%). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Tata Communications Ltd. (NYSE: TCL) trading on volume of 37,300 shares (losing $175.3 million), Blyth, Inc. (NYSE: BTH) trading on volume of 79,400 shares (losing $44.0 million) and Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOMX) trading on volume of 5,491,150 shares (losing $39.1 million). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by J.W. Mays, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAYS) trading on volume of 4,830 shares (gaining $17.3 million), EntreMed, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENMD) trading on volume of 109,850 shares (gaining $13.5 million) and Novogen Ltd. (NASDAQ: NVGN) trading on volume of 7,699 shares (gaining $11.2 million). The complete chart for today’s FirstAlert(tm) Money Index Synopsis is posted at investrend.com (http://www.investrend.com/fa-index). Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” Synopses.

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ACM, MOS, TYC, MON at Bank of America Securities Merrill Lynch Industrials Conference; CBS, SIRI, THQI, VZ at UBS Media & Communications Conference; CNQR at RBC Capital Markets Software-as-a-Service One-on-One Symposium; CPST at PennWell Corporation Power-Gen International Trade Show; GE Capital Investor Webcast; HL at RBC Capital Markets Silver Conference; INTC, MSFT, VMW, NFLX at Barclays Technology Conference; KWK, ESV, PVA, XTO at Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference; MON at American Seed Trade Association Conference; NRGY, HEP, KMP, WES at Wells Fargo Securities MLP Pipeline and E&P, Energy Services & Utility Symposiums; RF, JPM, MA, ZION at Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Conference; TEL Investor Meeting; TSCO, CPLA, JACK, URBN at Wedbush Morgan Securities California Dreamin Management Access Conference; TXN Mid-Quarter Update.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.paulspages.co.uk/sudoku/howtosolve/

Quote of the Day: "Pay no attention to what the critics say. Remember, a statue has never been set up in honour of a critic." Jean Sibelius

Today is: No observances.

Happy Birthday: Mary Queen of Scots, Jean Sibelius, Horatio Walpole, Eli Whitney, James Thurber, Sammy Davis Jr., David Carradine, Jim Morrison, Sir James Galway, Gregg Allman, Ann Coulter, Teri Hatcher.

Today in History: The American Federation of Labor was founded in 1866 by Samuel Gompers in Columbus, Ohio. NLS (a system for which hypertext and the computer mouse were developed) was publicly demonstrated for the first time in San Francisco in 1968. The Eagles released the album Hotel California in 1976. John Lennon was shot and killed by Mark David Chapman outside the Dakota Building in New York City in 1980.The leaders of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine signed an agreement dissolving the Soviet Union and establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States in 1991. The Cuzco Declaration was signed in Cuzco, Peru, in 2004, establishing the South American Community of Nations. The population of the Australian city of Victoria reached five million for the first time in 2004.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 12/1: Goofy Tuesday

bobfarley — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:09:08 +0000

- Commentary -

December 1, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Black Friday confirmed analysts’ (low) expectations, while Cyber Monday is a bit of a scam to begin with. Will great deals at Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) entice consumers to spend like there’s no tomorrow? Apparently not, but stocks rose anyway. Call it Goofy Tuesday.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 34.92 points, to close at 10,344.84, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index saw a rise of 4.14 points, to end at 1,095.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index was also up, by 6.16 points, to finish at 2,144.60.

What gives? Black Friday, the traditional kick off to the holiday shopping season, was a bust. According to the Wall Street Journal, citing National Retail Federation numbers, the overall shopper turnout was up slightly versus last year, “But the average spending for that period fell to $343.31 per person, from $372.57 last year.”

Must be that 10% official unemployment figure, or maybe the lower wages, or perhaps the shrinking credit lines. You think?

Cyber Monday is the new retail grail. Online shopping is now such a big part of the retail picture it has its own big day. And, according to Shop.org, about 100 million Americans are expected to shop online on Monday. That would beat last year’s online turnout of 85 million shoppers.

But Cyber Monday isn’t really the biggest day for online shopping; that will come later in December, closer to Christmas. So, the whole thing is a bit of a scam meant to distract the world from the crappy Black Fridays we’ve been having.

But logic doesn’t seem to matter in the Street these days, so spend away! If you were one of the lucky several million buying Amazon on Monday, you saw your baby rise by nearly 2%. Auctioneer eBay was up by 3.4%. And the receipts haven’t even been counted yet.

Happy Goofy Tuesday.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Construction Spending for October (10 a.m.), ISM Index for November (10 a.m.), Pending Home Sales for October (10 a.m.), Auto Sales for November.

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases AEP, AGL, CMS, RRI at Barrington Research Business Services Growth Conference; AEP, DUK, SO, XEL at BMO Capital Markets Utilities & Pipelines Day; AGII, MTZ, SYNA, HTS at Friedman Billings Ramsey Capital Markets Investor Conference; BMO Capital Markets 2009 Utility Day; CTCM, GFI, NICE, SPP at UBS LATAM – EMEA Investor Conference; ECL, APD, OLN, LZ at Citigroup Global Markets Basic Materials Conference; GG, AEM, HL at Scotia Capital Precious Metals Conference; HOLX Investment Communtiy Webcast; INO, EMIS, DRA, PVCT at New York Society of Security Analysts Biotech & Specialty Pharmaceuticals Industry Conference; KWK, BHI, MHR, GTE at CanaccordAdams Global Energy Conference; MDT, BSX, MYGN, STJ at Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference; MSFT, BMRN, CPHD, INTU at Nasdaq OMX Investor Conference; PX, DD, VAL at Citi Global Chemical Conference; TXN, CTXS, TLAB, MOT at Credit Suisse Group Technology Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.avert.org/world-aids-day.htm

Quote of the Day: "When I'm on a golf course and it starts to rain and lightning, I hold up my one iron, 'cause I know even God can't hit a one iron." Lee Trevino

Today is: World AIDS Day.

Happy Birthday: King Louis VI of France, Alexandra of Denmark, Rex Stout, Stansfield Turner, Lou Rawls, Lee Trevino, Bette Midler.

Today in History: Hans Christian Andersen published first book of fairy tales in 1835. Ford Motor Company introduced the first moving assembly line in 1913. Iceland became a self-governing kingdom in 1918, but remained united with Denmark. American Civil Rights Movement: In Montgomery, Alabama, seamstress Rosa Parks refused to give her bus seat to a white man in 1955 and was arrested for violating the city's racial segregation laws, an incident which leads to the Montgomery Bus Boycott. In 1998, Exxon announced a US$73.7 billion deal to buy Mobil.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 11/24: Home On The Strange

bobfarley — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 07:09:43 +0000

- Commentary -

November 24, 2009 (FinancialWire) — Wall Street seems to be in love with the pre-owned house sales numbers released Monday. So why is homebuilder Toll Brothers’ (NYSE: TOL) CEO talking about a “train wreck” on the way?

The numbers are certainly impressive, at least for existing houses: The National Association of Realtors released October figures on Monday showing sales of existing homes up 10.1% month-over-month — to their highest level in 2½ years. Investors were filled with fresh confidence.

As Reuters points out, “recovery is being supported by the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, low mortgage rates and falling house prices.” This month, the government extended the incentive into next year and added a $6,500 credit for home owners buying a new house.

The tax credit had been set to expire, prompting speculation that the sales numbers reflected buyers getting in while the getting was good. But there are other government supports in play that have stimulated the market, (kept it on life support in many places) and whose excesses may lead to a second crash in housing.

We’re talking about cheap Fed money, obviously, as well as Fed and Treasury measures to take bad housing assets off the balance sheets of banks. But there’s also the expansion of FHA mortgage support in play.

As The NY Times pointed out recently, the FHA has been standing in the mortgage insurer of last resort role once played by gullible purchasers of MBS and other real estate related paper. The backstop that allows reckless lending practices.

The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 doubled the maximum loan the FHA insured, to $729,750. This has led to a huge increase in FHA-backed lending in high-cost markets in places like — (you knew this was coming) – Florida, California and Nevada. At least three of the horsemen of the housing apocalypse.

Wouldn’t you know it? FHA-backed loans have recently seen a massive spike in delinquencies!

We’ll quote Bloomberg: “Foreclosures on prime mortgages and home loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration rose to three-decade highs in the third quarter, driven by the biggest job losses since the Great Depression.”

Bloomberg, citing Mortgage Bankers Association, said, “One out of every six FHA mortgages was late by at least one payment and 3.32 percent were in foreclosure, the highest for both since at least 1979.”

This is what prompted Robert Toll, CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers, to say, “It’s a definite train wreck and the flag will go up in the next couple of months: Bail us out. Give us more money.”

So, we’ll see about the sustainability of the housing recovery. Right now it’s not looking good long term unless employment can take a dramatic leap upward, because extreme government backstopping can’t go on forever.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 (8:30 a.m.), Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index for October (9 a.m.), Consumer Confidence Index for November (10 a.m.), FHFA Home Price Index for September (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 5-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ERIC with Swedish Shareholders' Association; UL Investor Seminar.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.audreyhepburn.com/

Quote of the Day: "If you want the present to be different from the past, study the past." Benedict "Baruch" Spinoza

Today is: D.B. Cooper Day.

Happy Birthday: Baruch Spinoza, Charles Theodore Pachelbel, Zachary Taylor, Bat Masterson, Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, Dale Carnegie, Irwin Allen, Howard Duff, William F. Buckley Jr., Oscar Robertson, Colin Hanks, Katherine Heigl.

Today in History: Abel Tasman in 1642 became the first European to discover the island of Tasmania. Charles Darwin published The Origin of Species in 1859. The first successful caterpillar track was made in 1904. In Washington, D.C. in 1932, the FBI Scientific Crime Lab officially opened. The Broadway play Gigi opened in 1951 with little-known actress Audrey Hepburn in the title role. In 1976, Martin Scorsese documented the last public performance by The Band in the film The Last Waltz.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

[cmmtry]

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 11/19: Why The Surprise?

bobfarley — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:12:01 +0000

- Commentary -

November 19, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — A sharp drop in housing starts led the market down on Wednesday. Homebuilders like DR Horton (NYSE: DHI) and Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) somehow gained (?!?) and BusinessWeek tells us the drop was a big shock.

According to the Commerce Department, new housing starts plunged 10.6% in October versus September, and were down 30.7% year-over-year. This came as shocking news to analysts, but it’s that reaction that should have reasonable people scratching their heads.

BusinessWeek’s Phil Mintz, “The numbers reflect builder uncertainty about the fate of the first-time homebuyer tax credit, which had buoyed the housing market and was due to expire at the end of November.” Really? Or do they reflect builder anxiety about homebuyers' full stop. After all, employment down, lending down, consumer anxiety up usually isn’t a great formula for homebuilders, right? You don’t need a tax credit if you’re not making money, after all.

BW said that October housing starts had been expected to rise according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Well, that tells us all we need to know right there. Economists! That same group who somehow missed the biggest housing bubble in history as it was reaching such gargantuan proportions that it was blotting out views of Saturn and Uranus. Wouldn’t you know it, they expected housing starts in the middle of a “jobless recovery” – and because of a tax credit. Sure, let’s all get ourselves into hundreds of thousands in new debt to save $2,000 at tax season. Makes sense.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Leading Indicators Index for October (10 a.m.), Philadelphia Fed Index for November (10 a.m.), Treasury announces 2, 5, 7-year note auctions (11 a.m.), Treasury Budget Statement for October (2 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ASML at Morgan Stanley TMT Conference; CLI at NYU Capital Markets in Real Estate Conference; ERF Investor Presentation; ETH Investor Conference; HPY, AXP, MA, WXS at Janney Montgomery Electronic Scott Payments Summit; IBM at JMP Securities Cloud Computing Conference; MDRX, EVVV at Citi Healthcare Conference; MHS at Sanford C. Bernstein & Biosimilars Conference; NED, COGO, ATV, CBAK at Brean Murray, Carret & Co., Inc China Growth Conference; POWI at Sidoti & Company New York Emerging Growth Institutional Investor Forum; PSE at RBC Energy Conference; RPBC, GIGA, CWST, AWK at Wall Street Analyst Forum; SLF Investor Day; SNDK, OMX, TOL, ATHN at Citi Small/Mid Cap Conference; URS, ES, BKR, FWLT at Keybanc Capital Markets Engineering & Construction Conference; WAG, CAKE, ADM, BJ at Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference; XTEX, XTXI, LINR, PVR at RBC Capital Markets MLP Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.greenisuniversal.com

Quote of the Day: "There exists no politician in India daring enough to attempt to explain to the masses that cows can be eaten." Indira Gandhi

Today is: Flag Day in Brazil, Liberation Da in Mali, Great American Smokeout.

Happy Birthday: George Rogers Clark, Solomon Foot, James A. Garfield, Billy Sunday, Tommy Dorsey, Indira Gandhi, Alan Young, Roy Campanella, Larry King, Dick Cavett, Ted Turner, Calvin Klein, Robert Beltran, Ann Curry, Meg Ryan, Jodie Foster, McCaughey septuplets.

Today in History: Christopher Columbus went ashore in 1493 on San Juan Bautista (later renamed Puerto Rico). The second Canadian railway line, the Montreal and Lachine Railway, was opened in 1847. American Civil War: Union President Abraham Lincoln delivered the Gettysburg Address in 1863 at the military cemetery dedication ceremony in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. Sammy Davis, Jr., lost his left eye in 1954 in an automobile accident in San Bernardino, California. Rocky and His Friends premiered on ABC in 1959. Ford Motor Company announced in 1959 the discontinuation of the unpopular Edsel. Apollo 12 astronauts Charles Conrad and Alan Bean landed in 1969 at Oceanus Procellarum and become the third and fourth humans to walk on the Moon. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat became in 1977 the first Arab leader to officially visit Israel. In Geneva, US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev met for the first time in 1985.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 11/17: Import/Export Dilemma

bobfarley — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:47:22 +0000

- Commentary -

November 17, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks gained on Monday as a weakening U.S. dollar held the prospect of a pickup in U.S. exports, and perhaps badly needed jobs. As if anticipating an end to unemployment misery, U.S. retail sales showed a pick-up. Will Walmart (NYSE: WMT) have a greener holiday season? Will Macy’s (NYSE: M)? We live in hope.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended at 10,406.96, up by 136.49 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 15.82 points to close at 1,109.30. The Nasdaq composite index rose 29.97 points, for 2,197.85.

U.S. retail sales were up 1.4% in October. Taking autos out of the mix brings a modest gain of only 0.2%.

Investors eyed the U.S. dollar, as the dollar index dropped to 74.947. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke weighed in, pledging that the central bank’s actions will keep the dollar strong. Investors may or may not be buying that, considering Fed actions of late, but they do hope that stimulus-rich Asians might buy more U.S. products.

Over at the NY Times, Paul Krugman isn’t so sure. He sees real danger in China’s policy of keeping the renminbi weak in an effort to boost exports. In his Monday column, the Nobel prize winning economist, observing that, “in recent months China has carried out what amounts to a beggar-thy-neighbor devaluation, keeping the yuan-dollar exchange rate fixed even as the dollar has fallen sharply against other major currencies.”

Krugman says that “temporary factors” have held China’s trade surplus and America’s trade deficit in check, but that, “Looking forward, we can expect to see both China’s trade surplus and America’s trade deficit surge.” He cites a new paper by Richard Baldwin and Daria Taglioni of the Graduate Institute, Geneva.

A weakening dollar should help U.S. exports, and thus U.S. employment stats, at a critical time. But if Krugman is right a mighty countervailing force might scupper that process, leaving the U.S. in a far weaker position than it’s been.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Producer Price Index (PPI) for October (8:30 a.m.), Treasury International Capital Flows (9 a.m.), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization for October (9:15 a.m.), NAHB Housing Market Index for September (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases AER Investor Meeting; CORE, CVGW at BB&T Capital Markets Food Industry Conference; CVS, MHS, DNDN, ISRG at Lazard Capital Healthcare Conference; EMN Investor Day; EXP, USG, SVR, ORN at Stephens Fall Investment Conference; HEV at Dow Jones Newswires Alternative Energy Conference; HON, GNK, CSR, URI at Oppenheimer & Co. Industrials Conference; LNC Conference for Investors and Bankers; NXY, LXS at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Small & Mid Cap Conference; PAET, ACN, EPIQ at Wachovia Midwest Tech & Telecom Investor Day; PENN, EGT at Deutsche Bank Securities G2E Gaming Investment Forum; RYL, BZH, HOV at UBS Building and Building Products Conference; SEE, LZ, AVY, POL at Ingalls & Snyder Chemical Seminar; THOR Investor Meeting to Review HeartMate II Destination Therapy Trial Data; UBS Investor Day.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.virtualtourist.com

Quote of the Day: "You can make more friends in a month by being interested in them than in ten years by trying to get them interested in you."* Charles A. Allen

Today is: Homemade Bread Day.

Happy Birthday: Charles A. Allen, Titian Peale, Rock Hudson, Lee Strasberg, Gordon Lightfoot, Martin Scorsese, Tom Seaver, Daisy Fuentes.

Today in History: Queen Mary I of England died and was succeeded by her half-sister Elizabeth I of England in 1558. English explorer, writer and courtier Sir Walter Raleigh went on trial for treason in 1603. The United States Capitol building in Washington, DC held its first session of the U.S. Congress in 1800. Joseph Grew, the United States ambassador to Japan, cabled the State Department in 1941 that Japan had plans to launch an attack against Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, but his cable was ignored. Douglas Engelbart received the patent for the first computer mouse in 1970. The first edition of Phrack was released in 1985, becoming the oldest computer underground magazine still running after its 20 years of existence. Kmart Corp. announced in 2004 it was buying Sears, Roebuck and Co. for $11 billion and naming the newly merged company Sears Holdings Corporation.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

Commentary: Pre-Week Review

toddessary — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:20:02 +0000

November 16, 2009 (FinancialWire) — Last week’s commentaries included the ETF Powershares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ), the Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM), Fluor Corp (NYSE: FLR) and others:

Back Above 10,000: – Market Commentary – November 9, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Genevieve Hawkins) — Markets shrugged off the high unemployment rate and returned to their winning ways last week, and with financial results expected from Wal Mart (NYSE: WMT) investors will now turn their attention to consumer spending. Last week’s 3.2% climb on the Dow and S&P 500… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/09/firstalerttm-daily-119-back-above-10000/).

Big Rally For Radioshack: November 10, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of Radioshack Corp (NYSE: RSH) jumped 14% on Monday, November 9, after the company announced it would soon carry Apple’s iPhone 3G and iPhone 3GS. The rally puts share prices right at the 50% retracement level ($20.70 reached intra-day) for Radioshack’s entire July 2007 to March 2009… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/10/big-rally-for-radioshack-says-market-timer-frank-kollar/).

Hostile, But Cheesy: – Commentary – November 10, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks ended higher on Monday as word filtered in that government bailout fever has gone worldwide again. Investors were also cheered by renewed bullish sentiment on the M&A front, with Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) leading the pack by going hostile in its bid for Britain’s… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/10/firstalerttm-daily-1110-hostile-but-cheesy/).

Lower Lows for Fluor: November 11, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of Fluor Corp (NYSE: FLR) posted lower earnings and revenue than Wall Street forecasted and shares paid the price by declining over 7% on Tuesday, November 10. How low can Fluor Corp go? It isn’t just the poor earnings report that is hurting Fluor Corp. Share prices have… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/11/lower-lows-for-fluor-says-market-timer-frank-kollar/).

Stock Market Rally Becoming More Selective: – Technical Analysis – November 11, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Dr. Joe Duarte) — The Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM) has been lagging the S&P 500 SPDR ETF for the last several weeks, which means that the small stocks, where the growth potential usually is in the stock market, is getting a vote of low confidence currently… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/11/firstalerttm-daily-1111-stock-market-rally-becoming-more-selective/).

Outsourcing In Islamic Finance: Who Will Make The First Move?: – Commentary – October 2009, (FinancialWire) (ValueNotes Outsourcing Watch: Insights for Investors) — The rapid growth in Islamic finance (Shari’ah banking) seen over the past 30 years with an opportunity to cash in on a huge market, has led to entry of global banking giants like HSBC (NYSE: HBC) and Standard Chartered. Islamic finance has now… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/12/outsourcing-in-islamic-finance-who-will-make-the-first-move/).

New Highs for Powershares QQQ Trust: November 12, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of the ETF Powershares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) made new 2009 closing highs on Wednesday, November 11. This is in direct contrast to the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX), which is well short of new highs. But the stock market seems to want to continue higher, maybe because… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/12/new-highs-for-powershares-qqq-trust-says-market-timer-frank-kollar/).

Wartime Lull: – Commentary – November 12, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks closed modestly higher after light Veterans Day trading. Financials benefitted from a sense that the economy is improving and there was even a bright point in the homebuilding sector, with Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) gaining on favorable news. The Dow Jones industrial average closed… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/12/firstalerttm-daily-1112-wartime-lull/).

Do-Or-Die Levels For S&P, NASDAQ: – Technical Analysis – November 13, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — The S&P 500 Index (SPX), and its tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY), both reached new closing highs this week, but on Thursday, November 12, they reversed hard and closed back below their previous October rally highs. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) … (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/13/firstalerttm-daily-1113-do-or-die-levels-for-sp-nasdaq/).

FirstAlert Money Index 11/12 Synopsis: November 13, 2009 (FinancialWire) — The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/13/firstalerttm-money-index-synopsis-44/).

Free annual reports, filings and conference call webcasts for companies mentioned in the news are available via Investrend Syndications (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). Friday's issued reports and/or recorded webcasts include Yanglin Soybean Inc. (OTCBB: YSYB), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Penford Corporation (NASDAQ: PENX), Savanna Energy Services Corp. (TSX: SVY) and ZAGG Inc. (NASDAQ: ZAGG).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 11/12: Wartime Lull

bobfarley — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:40:42 +0000

- Commentary -

November 12, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks closed modestly higher after light Veterans Day trading. Financials benefitted from a sense that the economy is improving and there was even a bright point in the homebuilding sector, with Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) gaining on favorable news.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 10,291.26, up by 44.29 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 5.50 points on the day, to finish at 1,098.51. The Nasdaq composite index rose 15.82 points, and closed at 2,166.90.

ABC News released the results of its index of consumer comfort. The result? Consumers are more comfortable, at least for the week ended November 8. It was still a lousy result, with the index pegged at a negative 46.

At least some homebuilders are finding hope. Toll Brothers chief among them. The company’s shares gained on news that Toll had inked fourth-quarter sales results that were up 42% in units and 62% in dollars versus Q4 2008. Of note: cancellations of sales contracts are down.

We’ll see weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday, so don’t get too giddy.

But investor sentiment seems to be more driven by exciting news of continued stimulus than by “real world” gains in consumer spending or job growth. Can’t fight the Fed.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session’s trading showed 14 advancers versus 11 decliners. Volume leaders were led by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 64,507,500 shares closing at $4.83 (up 1.3%), the SPDR Trust ETF (NYSE: SPY) trading 31,179,071 shares closing at $107.46 (down 0.2%) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) trading 30,600,472 shares closing at $20.49 (up 0.4%). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) trading on volume of 3,804,100 shares (losing $633.3 million), Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE) trading on volume of 490,000 shares (losing $174.0 million) and CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) trading on volume of 12,567,100 shares (losing $47.0 million). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by Interactive Intelligence, Inc. (NASDAQ: ININ) trading on volume of 341,941 shares (gaining $60.2 million), Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPTT) trading on volume of 723,450 shares (gaining $24.4 million) and Empire Resorts Inc. (NASDAQ: NYNY) trading on volume of 141,097 shares (gaining $18.4 million). The complete chart for today’s FirstAlert(tm) Money Index Synopsis is posted at investrend.com (http://www.investrend.com/fa-index). Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” Synopses.

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), EIA Petroleum Inventories (11 a.m.), Treasury auctions 30-year bonds (1 p.m.), Treasury Budget Statement for October (2 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ATVI, MSFT, ERTS, GLUU at BMO Capital Markets Digital Entertainment Conference; BHLB, FMER, AF, TMP at Sandler O'Neill & Partners East Coast Financial Services Conference; BPI, COCO, LRN, CPLA at Signal Hill Education Preview Investor Conference; CSX, DHR, GE, CAT at Citi Industrial Manufacturing & Transportation Conference; MA at Piper Jaffray Financial Services Summit; NWK, APKT, HLIT, ARRS at Needham & Company Broadband Tech Day; SUPG, DEL, DFZ, NVAX at Three Point Advisors Southwest Ideas Investor Conference; VRTX, CAH, CVS, AMGN at Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.bookitprogram.com/teachers/nyrd.asp

Quote of the Day: "How can one conceive of a one-party system in a country that has over 200 varieties of cheese?" Charles de Gaulle

Today is: No observances today.

Happy Birthday: Auguste Rodin, Charles de Gaulle, Harry Blackmun, Princess Grace Kelly, Booker T. Jones, Neil Young, Megan Mullally, David Schwimmer, Michael Moorer, Sammy Sosa, Radha Mitchell, Anne Hathaway.

Today in History: Future Byzantine empress Zoe married Romanus Argyrus in 1028 according to the wishes of the dying Constantine VIII. Plymouth, England, became in 1439 the first town incorporated by the English Parliament. Jean Sylvain Bailly, first Mayor of Paris, was guillotined in 1793. The frozen bodies of Robert Scott and his men were found on the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica in 1912. Leon Trotsky was expelled from the Soviet Communist Party in 1927, leaving Joseph Stalin with undisputed control of the Soviet Union. Hugh Gray took the first known photos of the Loch Ness Monster in 1933. A branch of the Exchange National Bank in Chicago opened the first ten drive-up teller windows in 1946. The Oregon Highway Division attempted to destroy a rotting beached Sperm whale with explosives, leading to the now -infamous exploding whale incident of 1970. The NASA space probe Voyager I made its closest approach to Saturn and took its first images of its rings in 1980. Tim Berners-Lee published a formal proposal for the World Wide Web in 1990.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 11/10: Hostile, But Cheesy

bobfarley — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 07:08:40 +0000

- Commentary -

November 10, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks ended higher on Monday as word filtered in that government bailout fever has gone worldwide again. Investors were also cheered by renewed bullish sentiment on the M&A front, with Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) leading the pack by going hostile in its bid for Britain's Cadbury (NYSE: CBY).

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the trading day at 10,226.94, up by 203.52 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 23.78 points, for 1,093.08. The Nasdaq composite index closed at 2,154.06, up by 41.62 points.

Not all market players were giddy: BusinessWeek quotes Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research saying, "I am running into more equity portfolio managers who are fully invested bears." The reason? You can't fight city hall, or in this case the Fed. Hold your nose and invest.

But higher stock prices does seem to have perked up M&A action. Among the deals: Sprint Nextel will invest $1 billion in Clearwire, a wireless broadband provider. General Electric and Comcast will form a $30 billion JV that will give Comcast control of NBC Universal, in which GE holds an 80% stake.

Silly money, reminiscent of those glory days before the fall, (say, 2007) was also on the table. Google agreed to pay $750 million for AdMob, a California-based startup in the field of mobile advertising.

At a meeting in Scotland, G-20 leaders have agreed to keep the government stimulus money flowing in the face of a rocky and uncertain global economic recovery. The leaders agreed to agree on what form certain policies may take, but a disagreement between the US and UK over a financial services tax makes this seem unlikely in the near term.

Let's face it, Team Obama has taken a coddling approach to financial sector reform versus even close ally the UK. The rest of Europe favors far stricter measures, including the breakup of large financial firms. Britain, in contrast to the US, has at least been willing to entertain the aforementioned tax, and has shown a reluctant willingness to nationalize banks where necessary. So, good luck with a global solution!

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury auctions 10-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases $25 bln 10-yr Treasury Note Auction; ADBE, NFLX, YHOO, RHT at Piper Jaffray Global Internet Summit; ADVX, NDAQ, MKTX, CATM at Deutsche Bank Securities FinTech Senior Executive Forum; ALK Investors Day; ANR, AHGP, CNX, WLT at Raymond James Coal Investors Conference; BAC, GS, MS, TD at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking and Financial Services Conference; BWA, CFX, MWA, CAT at Robert W. Baird & Co Industrial Conference; CBST, SIRO at Jefferies Healthcare Summit; CEPH 2009 R&D Day; EGN Investor Day; MON Biennial Investor Event Operational and Financial Presentation; VASC, ISIS, ELGX, ATRC at CanaccordAdams Cardiovascular Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.lightfoot.ca/

Quote of the Day: "If you're going to make rubbish, be the best rubbish in it." Richard Burton

Today is: National Young Reader's Day.

Happy Birthday: Martin Luther, Winston Churchill, Claude Rains, Russell Johnson, Richard Burton, Roy Scheider, Greg Lake, Dave Loggins, Sinbad, Brittany Murphy.

Today in History: Henry Morton Stanley located missing explorer and missionary, Dr. David Livingstone in Ujiji, in 1871, near Lake Tanganyika saying "Dr. Livingstone, I presume?" The first national convention of the American Legion was held in 1919 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Kate Smith, on her weekly radio show, sang Irving Berlin's God Bless America for the first time in 1938. National Educational Television (the predecessor to the Public Broadcasting Service) in the United States debuted the children's television program Sesame Street in 1969. The 729-foot-long freighter SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank in 1975 during a storm on Lake Superior, killing all 29 crew on board.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

Commentary Pre-Week Review

toddessary — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:00:00 +0000

November 9, 2009 (FinancialWire) — Last week's commentaries included Ford (NYSE: F), Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) and others:

Beware The Third Wave Down: (Technical commentary by Frank Kollar) — The S&P 500 Index (SPX), and its tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY), rebounded this week from a sharp sell-off last week. Although the gains this week, culminating in a 2% rally on Thursday, November 5, are a nice boost for the bulls… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/06/firstalerttm-daily-116-beware-the-third-wave-down/).

Fed Funds Fun: Market commentary by Philip Holmes — Stocks finished mixed on Wednesday on economic news that was rather, uh, mixed. But hey, cable operator Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) sees the economy as improving. Do the unemployed maintain cable service? The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,802.14 on Wednesday, up by 30.23 points, while… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/05/firstalerttm-daily-115-fed-funds-fun/).

Have Shares Of Biotech HOLDRS Reached Support?: Technical commentary by Frank Kollar — Shares of Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX: BBH) have taken a heavy hit these past two weeks, but may have reached a short term support level. After breaking to the downside from a pennant formation on October 21, shares of Biotech HOLDRS continued to fall until reaching a low of… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/05/have-shares-of-biotech-holdrs-reached-support-asks-market-timer-frank-kollar/).

Are Bears Running Out Of Time?: Technical commentary by Dr. Joe Duarte — The S&P 500 and the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (NYSE: SPY) are dancing between the 20 and 50 day moving averages. Intraday volatility is rising. And we are in the midst of a very important week. That means that anything is possible… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/04/firstalerttm-daily-114-are-bears-running-out-of-time/).

Do Or Die For Shares of Starbucks: Technical commentary by Frank Kollar — Shares of Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX) are between important support and resistance levels that will determine their course for the weeks ahead. Starbucks has resistance at the $20.00 level, where the current declines picked up downside momentum. Starbucks also has strong support at $18.74… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/04/do-or-die-for-shares-of-starbucks-says-market-timer-frank-kollar/).

Manufacturing Recovery?: Market commentary by Philip Holmes — Stocks ended Monday's higher after a volatile trading session as investors weighed the lasting impact of the day's better-than-expected manufacturing data. As if to boost the bulls' case, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) unexpectedly posted a third-quarter profit of $997 million. The Dow Jones industrial average closed… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/03/firstalerttm-daily-113-manufacturing-recovery/).

S&P 500 SPDR ETF Goes Nowhere: Technical commentary by Dr. Joe Duarte — The S&P SPDR ETF (NYSE: SPY) has taken it on the chin lately. And Monday's action was no improvement despite the bounce. Duarte added: Our trading plan calls for daily chart watching, with special attention to key support and resistance levels such as the 20… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/03/sp-500-spdr-etf-goes-nowhere-says-dr-joe-duarte/).

Dell Breaks Support: Technical commentary by Frank Kollar — Shares of computer maker Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) reached important support levels late last week and on Monday, November 2. A week ago we wrote: "With the exception of one trading day's intra-day lows, the $14.80 level has held all declines since Dell rallied last August. This should… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/03/dell-breaks-support-says-market-timer-frank-kollar/).

Setting Up For A Fall: Market commentary by Genevieve Hawkins — Investors were spooked last week as volatility climbed, and if news from automaker Ford (NYSE: F) isn't as good as expected, the drop could signal the end of the rally. Last Friday's drop led the Dow down 2.6% for the week, while the S&P 500 lost… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/02/firstalerttm-daily-112-setting-up-for-a-fall/).

Stock Market Reform Advocates Lose Ally And Hero: Editorial commentary by Mark Faulk — There will be a lot written and said about Houston attorney John O'Quinn over the next few days, as family, friends, and colleagues eulogize the famed attorney who died Thursday in a car accident, along with a longtime employee of his law firm… (continued at http://www.financialwire.net/2009/11/02/stock-market-reform-advocates-lose-ally-and-hero-2/).

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

Commentary Weekly Round-Up

toddessary — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:52:13 +0000

November 7, 2009 (FinancialWire) — Last week's commentaries included Ford (NYSE: F), Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL), the S&P SPDR ETF (NYSE: SPY) and others:

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 11/5: Fed Funds Fun

bobfarley — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 06:08:41 +0000

- Commentary -

November 5, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks finished mixed on Wednesday on economic news that was rather, uh, mixed. But hey, cable operator Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) sees the economy as improving. Do the unemployed maintain cable service?

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,802.14 on Wednesday, up by 30.23 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose by 1.09 points, to finish at 1,046.50. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 1.80 points, to close at 2,055.52.

Earlier gains were largely wiped out later in the day, after the Fed announced that it would hold its benchmark interest rate at near zero. The move, which comes at the end of the Federal Open Market Committees' two day meeting, allays fears of tightening, but at the same time signals that an already weak recovery will likely remain weak.

The Institute for Supply Management nonmanufacturing index dropped to 50.6 for October, down from 50.9 in September. A report from ADP shows private payrolls down by a higher-than-expected 203,000 in October. Stay tuned Friday for U.S. jobs data for October.

What we see thus far in the week is that recovery is sputtering along at best. Jobs, though a trailing indicator, aren't roaring back. Consumer spending – which better not be a trailing indicator – isn't improving much, either. The banks are still in bad shape. Talk of a second stimulus is in the air, but it will likely get even less political support than the first one did.

What to do?

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Chain Store Sales for October, Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Productivity & Costs Index for Q3 (8:30 a.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ANR, NX, PCX at Davenport Metals & Mining Conference; BAC, RF, BBT, STI at BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference; BGCP, NYX, EVR, CME at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Securities Brokerage & Market Structure Conference; CTXS, CVLT, SYNA, EBAY at Lazard Capital Markets Technology & Media Best Ideas Investor Day; JBLU, PAY, ALGT, ABM at Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference; KMT, ITW, RTN, GMR at Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference; MA, CBZ, TRAK, XRPT at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Business and Government Services Unconference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://retirementjobs.com/

Quote of the Day: "There is something insane about a lack of doubt. Doubt, to me anyway, is what makes you human, and without doubt even the righteous lose their grip not only on reality but also on their humanity." Tilda Swinton

Today is: National Men Make Dinner Day.

Happy Birthday: Will Durant, Joel McCrea, Roy Rogers, Myron Floren, Ike Turner, Elke Sommer, Art Garfunkel, Peter Noone, Bill Walton, Bryan Adams, Tilda Swinton, Tatum O'Neal, Famke Janssen, Sam Rockwell, Johnny Damon, Ryan Adams.

Today in History: St. Felix's Flood destroyed the city of Reimerswaal in the Netherlands in 1530. Gunpowder Plot: A plot in 1605 led by Robert Catesby to blow up the English Houses of Parliament was thwarted when Sir Thomas Knyvet, a justice of the peace, found Guy Fawkes in a cellar below the Parliament building. A French-American force under Colonel LaBalme was defeated by Miami Chief Little Turtle in 1780. In defiance of the law, suffragist Susan B. Anthony voted in 1872 for the first time, and is later fined $100. George B. Selden was granted the first U.S. patent for an automobile in 1895. Forty-five year old George Foreman became boxing's oldest heavyweight champion in 1994 when he knocked out Michael Moorer.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 11/3: Manufacturing Recovery?

bobfarley — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:24:28 +0000

- Commentary -

November 3, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) – Stocks ended Monday's higher after a volatile trading session as investors weighed the lasting impact of the day's better-than-expected manufacturing data. As if to boost the bulls' case, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) unexpectedly posted a third-quarter profit of $997 million.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,789.44, up by 76.71 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 6.69 points on the day, to close at 1,042.88. The Nasdaq composite index rose 4.09 points, to finish at 2,049.20.

Early on, investors were cheered by favorable data on manufacturing and pending home sales. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index hit 55.7 in October, up from an appalling 38.7 a year ago. September pending home sales in the U.S. were up 6.1%, following 10 months of incremental gains.

But later in the day came word from President Obama that job losses would likely continue despite promising signs of recovery. There were also dark hints from the Fed about poor loan quality at U.S. banks.

That only added to apprehensions about what the Fed might do next. The Fed's Open Market Committee kicked off a two day meeting on Monday, and investors are worried that the outcome might be a higher target for the Feds benchmark interest rate target.

With all the mixed messages on Monday you have to see Ford's Q3 earnings release as the glue that held the optimistic together. The company's nearly $1 billion dollars in earnings was a big surprise, especially with Q3 being Ford's first profitable quarter in North America for over four years.

The number was too big to be passed off as a mere "Cash For Clunkers" halo – though many think the company is still to dependent on its finance arm for profits. But a solid win it is for Ford, for the idea that entrenched management can be successfully un-entrenched at the Big Three and that not all American car company's will need a government bailout to thrive again.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Factory Orders for September (10 a.m.), 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins, Auto Sales for October.

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases AET, PRXL, AIS, VPHM at Oppenheimer & Co. Healthcare Conference; CAMD, IIN, SFE, PTEC at TechAmerica AeA Classic Financial Conference; DCI, TEN, BWA, AZO at Gabelli & Company Auto Aftermarket Symposium; EXC, CNP, DTE, AYE at EEI Financial Conference; GFI Investors Day; NSM, VECO, ADES, RZ at Wedbush Morgan Securities Clean Technology & Industrial Growth Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://weather-warehouse.com/?gclid=CJX4zub7nogCFQm8YAod0RRxWw

Quote of the Day: "Be careful; with quotations you can damn anything." Andre Malraux

Today is: Independence Day in Panama and Dominica.

Happy Birthday: Lucan, Andre Malraux, William Cullen Bryant, Edward Douglass White, Bob Feller, Charles Bronson, Phil Simms.

Today in History: John Austin, a highwayman, was in 1783 the last to be publicly hanged at London's Tyburn gallows. The Bank of Montreal, Canada's oldest chartered bank, opened in 1817 in Montreal, Quebec. The Times of India, the world's largest circulated English language daily broadsheet newspaper was founded in 1838 as The Bombay Times and Journal of Commerce. Chevrolet officially entered the automobile market in 1911 in competition with the Ford Model T. The first in the Godzilla series of films was released in 1954 in Japan.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/29: House Rules

bobfarley — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 06:08:02 +0000

- Commentary -

October 29, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks took a plunge on Wednesday as investors mulled a disappointing report on new house sales and wondered if the recovery was sustainable. While Q3 earnings season continues to placate those fears, somewhat, (Visa (NYSE: V) and Qwest (NYSE: Q) beat expectations) some of the bigger numbers are troubling.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,762.69 on Wednesday, down by 119.48 point, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index lost 20.78 points, to finish at 1,042.63. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 56.48 points, to close at 2,059.61.

What had them worried: a report that new home sales dropped to an annualized rate of 402,000 units from a 417,000 unit rate in August. Analysts had been looking for a 440,000 unit annualized rate.

Other indicators were steady if not spectacular. Durable goods orders rose 1% in September, in line with expectations. That had dropped a disappointing 2.6% in August.

We'll see the Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report on Thursday, but there was one brightening tidbit in the mix on Wednesday. One report showed that the number of metro areas reporting jobless rates above 10% dropped in September versus August.

Many are worried that the recovery, while tangible, has been weak, and heavily aided by enormous government intervention. What happens when the Uncle Sugar bowl runs out?

If unprecedented support for new homebuyers fails to spur new home sales, what happens when the tax credits are gone? Remember Cash for Clunkers?

One thing is certain: we have not fully reckoned with all the imbalances and unrealistic expectations caused by the credit bubble. A society that relies on cheap, easy credit allowing consumers and companies to live way beyond their means is not going to go back to "business as usual" once the bubble bursts. The Fed simply cannot create enough liquidity, nor the government borrow and spend enough, to make that happen.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 (8:30 a.m.), Treasury auctions 7-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases BCON, EIX, ALST @ International Quality & Productivity Center Energy Storage Summit; SAFM Investor Day; SUPG, TRBN, HNAB, ICGN @ The 8th Annual BIO Investor Forum.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.luminarium.org/renlit/ralegh.htm

Quote of the Day: "People who commit adultery must die. Everyone knows that. Any movie tells you that!" Richard Dreyfuss

Today is: World Psoriasis Day.

Happy Birthday: Edmond Halley, Martin Folkes, Fanny Brice, Akim Tamiroff, Fredric Brown, Dominick Dunne, Bob Ross, Denny Laine, Richard Dreyfuss, Kate Jackson, Dan Castellaneta, Winona Ryder, Gabrielle Union, Brendan Fehr, Amanda Beard.

Today in History English adventurer, writer, and courtier Sir Walter Raleigh was beheaded in 1618 for allegedly conspiring against James I of England. Mozart's opera Don Giovanni was first performed in 1787 in Prague. Mount Hood, Oregon, was named in 1792 after the British naval officer Alexander Arthur Hood by Lt. William E. Broughton who spotted the mountain near the mouth of the Willamette River. Spain declared war on Morocco in 1859. Sixteen countries meeting in Geneva in 1863 agreed to form the International Red Cross. The ticker-tape parade was invented in 1886 in New York City when office workers spontaneously threw ticker tape into the streets as the Statue of Liberty was dedicated. The Harvard University football team lost to Centre College in 1921, ending a 25 game winning streak, one of the biggest upsets in college football. The New York Stock Exchange crashed in 1929 in what will be called the Crash of '29 or "Black Tuesday," ending the Great Bull Market of the 1920s and beginning the Great Depression. Muhammad Ali (Cassius Clay) won his first professional fight in 1960.Tanganika and Zanzibar joined in 1964 to form the Republic of Tanzania. The first-ever computer-to-computer link was established in 1969 on ARPANET, the precursor to the Internet. Space Shuttle Discovery blasted off in 1998 with 77-year old John Glenn on board, making him the oldest person to go into space. He had become the first American to orbit Earth on February 20, 1962.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/27: Blowing In The Reids

bobfarley — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 06:09:32 +0000

- Commentary -

October 27, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) – Stocks ended lower on Monday, led down by financials and healthcare stocks. Investors heard, before the bell, that the U.S. Senate is sending a filibuster-proof public health insurance option to the floor. Are players like Aetna (NYSE: AET) and Wellpoint (NYSE: WLP) in deep doo-doo? Maybe, maybe not.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,873.63, down by 98.55 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index lost 11.41 points on the day, to close at 1,068.19. The Nasdaq composite index slumped 12.84 points, to finish at 2,141.63.

Well, we've heard for months about Triggers, Blue Dogs, Maine Snowe-storms and Democratic perfidy, but an important milestone in the health insurance reform saga has been crossed: the Senate version of the legislation will contain a public option.

Perhaps investors will move to dump health insurance stocks as a result. They shouldn't be too hasty.

While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid sounded forceful and definitive in his afternoon press conference, the matter is anything but settled. Even if it is, there are issues to be ironed out that could still make healthcare reform a bonanza for the likes of Aetna and Wellpoint.

For starters, Reid and Co. are pushing the weaker version of the public option — you know, the one that has to negotiate rates with providers like any other insurer. This plan will surely not threaten the profits of insurers like the "robust" public option, which pegs rates to Medicare +5%.

Also, remember all the talk about 3% overhead for Medicare versus 30% for private insurers? Good luck keeping overhead low on a public insurance scheme that has to a: negotiate rates, b: maintain individual relationships with monthly-paying policy holders, and c: has to be set up from scratch in all 50 states despite there being huge regulatory differences state to state.

But by far the biggest boon to private insurers is the extra leverage they now have to push for a stronger individual mandate. Now that the public option is in, it will be easier to get those 20-somethings to pay up, or else. And will they choose the public plan? Not if the private companies are clever and offer cool things that the government plan-which will likely attract lots of already-sick, already old individual uninsured-does not.

The weak sister public option could be the best thing that ever happened to private insurer's balance sheets-at least until healthcare costs truly bankrupt the country. Stay tuned.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August (9 a.m.), Treasury auctions 2-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases APWR, IVAC, MSCC @ Solar Power International Conference; BKS Investor Presentation; CYTX, CADX, ARNA, SNMX @ BIOCOM Investor Conference; MNTG, HOT, ISCA, PERY @ Wells Fargo Consumer Conference; ORCL Insight for Investors: Communications Strategy.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.museumofhoaxes.com/hoax/Hoaxipedia/Cardiff_Giant/

Quote of the Day: "I think there is only one quality worse than hardness of heart, and that is softness of head." Theodore Roosevelt

Today is: Independence Day in Turkmenistan and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Navy Day.

Happy Birthday: Erasmus, James Cook, Isaac Singer, Theodore Roosevelt, Emily Post, Dylan Thomas, Nanette Fabray, Floyd Cramer, John Cleese, Simon Le Bon.

Today in History: The United States and Spain signed the Treaty of Madrid in 1795, establishing the boundaries between Spanish colonies and the U.S. United States annexed the former Spanish colony of West Florida in 1810. The first commercially-sponsored television program, Geographically Speaking, sponsored by Bristol-Myers, aired in 1946. The Canyon City meteorite, a 1.4 kg chondrite type meteorite struck in Fremont County, Colorado, in 1973. The Boston Red Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 4 of the World Series in 2004, winning their first championship since 1918.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/22: Not Saved By The Bell

bobfarley — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 06:11:31 +0000

- Commentary -

October 22, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks ended down on Wednesday as a late selloff reversed earlier gains. Souring sentiment on financials led the plunge, but troubling news from Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) didn't help, either.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,949.36, down by 92.12 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 9.66 points, to finish at 1,081.40. The Nasdaq composite index lost 12.74 points on the day, to end at 2,150.73.

Leading the banks down in late-day trading was Wells Fargo, whose shares lost 5.1% after Rochdale Research analyst Richard Bove downgraded his rating on the company to sell. Other banks took big hits as well, including Citi (down 2.3%), JPMorgan (down 3%) and Bank of America (down 2.9%).

Airframer Boeing reported a worse-than-expected loss for the quarter, and investors responded by dropping the share price by 2.4%. Retail giant Wal-Mart also reported, telling investors that it expects a tough holiday season. WMT dropped 2.1% on the day.

Investors also saw the latest Beige Book report from the Fed. The report is in line with current Fed policy, showing an absence of inflation pressures and hailing a modest recovery underway. The Fed's Open Market Committee next meets on November 22.

Nothing really surprising here. Wall Street watchers weren't expecting a stellar earnings season, and so far they haven't been too disappointed. Speculation surrounds just how overpriced the market got in recent months, and how big a hit stocks would take once investors realized that "V" isn't in the economic vocabulary these days.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Leading Indicators Index for September (10 a.m.), FHFA Housing Price Index for August (10 a.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases PBR, CIG, SBS, TAM at New York Society of Security Analysts Investing in Brazil Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.foosball.com

Quote of the Day: "In university they don't tell you that the greater part of the law is learning to tolerate fools." Doris Lessing

Today is: International Stuttering Awareness Day.

Happy Birthday: Erasmus Reinhold, Franz Liszt, Curly Howard, Doris Lessing, Joan Fontaine, Christopher Lloyd, Annette Funicello, Catherine Deneuve, Leslie West, Jeff Goldblum, Toby Mac.

Today in History: Last known hanging for witchcraft in the United States took place in 1692. Russia founded a colony on Kodiak Island, Alaska, in 1784. One thousand meters (3,200 feet) above Paris, André-Jacques Garnerin made the first recorded parachute jump in 1797. Sam Houston was inaugurated as the first president of the Republic of Texas in 1836. The first rugby match under floodlights took place in 1878 in Salford, between Broughton and Swinton. Toastmasters International was founded in 1924. In East Liverpool, Ohio, in 1934, notorious bank robber Pretty Boy Floyd was shot and killed by Federal Bureau of Investigation agents. Xerox introduced the copy machine in 1938. The former Soviet Union detonated its first nuclear bomb in 1949. In 1962, US President John F. Kennedy announced that American spy planes had discovered Soviet nuclear weapons in Cuba, and that he had ordered a naval "quarantine" of the island nation. The Supremes became in 1966 the first all-female music group to attain a No. 1 selling album (The Supremes A' Go-Go). Red Dye No. 4 was banned in 1976 by the US Food and Drug Administration after the discovery that it causes tumors in the bladders of dogs.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/20: Tech Dreams

bobfarley — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:10:32 +0000

- Commentary -

October 20, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks finished higher on Monday as there was little in recent earnings or economic reports to dampen the enthusiasm of the enthusiastic. Two big tech reports due after the bell — by Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) — are on track to maintaining the good cheer.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the trading session at 10,092.19, up by 96.28 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 10.23 points, to close at 1,097.91. The Nasdaq composite index rose 19.52 points on the day, to close at 2,176.32.

Investors liked what they saw from Caterpillar and Hasbro, among others, but it was tech that had them buying. The sector is showing signs of rebound — enough for the New York Times to gush, "The calendar says we are well on our way to winter, but for many technology companies, orders are starting to bloom like flowers after a spring rain."

IBM, Intel and Google all beat analysts expectations when they reported, and Apple didn't disappoint after the bell on Monday. The company posted a whopping 25% increase in sales, to $9.87 billion during the period ended September 26. Analysts were looking for revenue of $9.22 billion and profit of $1.43 a share; they got fourth-quarter net income up 47 percent ,to $1.67 billion, or $1.82 a share.

Is the recession over? Maybe, but as the Times puts it, "Much depends on how the nascent revival in the technology sector plays out. Computer hardware and software are building blocks of the modern economy, as basic as iron ore and coal were to the industrial era."

True enough, and there's good from the sector news to savor for now.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Housing Starts & Building Permits for Sep. (8:30 a.m.), Producer Price Index (PPI) for September (8:30 a.m.), Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ASEI, DCP, INSY, OSIS @ Imperial Capital Homeland Security Investor Conference; CASY, CORE, SUSS, PTRY @ Morgan Keegan Convenience Store & Distributor Conference; NDSN Investor Day.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.1911encyclopedia.org/Schleswig-Holstein_Question

Quote of the Day: "The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated, only three men in Europe have ever understood it. One was Prince Albert, who is dead. The second was a German professor who became mad. I am the third and I have forgotten all about it." Lord Palmerston

Today is: Miss American Rose Day.

Happy Birthday: Sir Christopher Wren, Bela Lugosi, Jelly Roll Morton, Arlene Francis, Grandpa Jones, Art Buchwald, Mickey Mantle, Dr. Joyce Brothers, Jerry Orbach, Earl Hindman, Tom Petty, Viggo Mortensen.

Today in History: The Patent of Tolerance, providing limited freedom of worship, was approved in 1781 in Habsburg Monarchy. Peru and Chile signed the Treaty of Ancón in 1883, bringing an end to Peru's involvement in the War of the Pacific. General Douglas MacArthur, in 1944, fulfilled his promise to return to the Philippines when he commanded an Allied assault on the islands, reclaiming them from the Japanese during the Second World War. The Sydney Opera House opened in 1973.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/15: The 10s Have It

bobfarley — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 06:08:00 +0000

- Commentary -

October 15, 2009 (FinancialWire) — The Dow closed above 10,000 on Wednesday after a year that saw investors scrambling between the bar and the vomitorium. Stocks rallied on better-than-expected news from JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC). It might even look like a V-shaped recovery if the unemployment rate would stay under 10%.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at 10,015.86, up by 144.80 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 18.83 points to finish at at 1,092.02. The Nasdaq composite index rose 32.34 points, to 2,172.23.

Investors rallied on pleasant news various sectors, including retail, technology and banking. Leading the banks into earnings season was JPMorgan Chase, which posted a profit of $3.59 billion for the quarter. This beat expectations despite the bank warning of further loan losses to come.

Chipmaker Intel lost less money than industry analysts expected it to, which is considered a party these days.

But there were also grim harbingers for consumer spending, specifically from Johnson & Johnson. The health care giant posted earnings of $1.20 a share in the third quarter. This beat analyst predictions but came mainly as a result of cost cutting.

The big news from J&J, according to experts, was a $5.3 billion drop in revenues. No sales growth spells trouble in the long run, no matter how well the company manages its money.

Especially when managing its money in the past year meant laying off lots of people, who then have a hard time stocking up on baby oil. Rinse and repeat that concept for nearly every other company you hear from this earnings season.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session's trading showed 22 advancers versus 3 decliners. Volume leaders were led by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 72,622,500 shares closing at $5.00 (up 3.5%), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) trading 51,974,818 shares closing at $20.83 (up 1.7%) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) trading 38,978,400 shares closing at $18.59 (up 4.4%). Of last session's Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) trading on volume of 50,800 shares (losing $8.585 billion), TransDigm Group Inc. (NYSE: TDG) trading on volume of 360,600 shares (losing $252.2 million) and Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. (NASDAQ: CETV) trading on volume of 775,199 shares (losing $122.2 million). Of last session's Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by Active Power Inc. (NASDAQ: ACPW) trading on volume of 763,430 shares (gaining $20.6 million), China INSOnline Corp. (NASDAQ: CHIO) trading on volume of 997,630 shares (gaining $19.6 million) and ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZIOP) trading on volume of 393,704 shares (gaining $15.5 million). The complete chart for today's FirstAlert(tm) Money Index Synopsis is posted at investrend.com (http://www.investrend.com/fa-index-101509). Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" Synopses.

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September (8:30 a.m.), Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 a.m.), Philadelphia Fed Index for October (10 a.m.), EIA Petroleum Inventories (10:30 a.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases HALO Investor R&D Day; PETM 2009 Analyst Day.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.mechanicalturk.com

Quote of the Day: "They are able because they think they are able." Virgil

Today is: White Cane Safety Day.

Happy Birthday: Virgil, Evangelista Torricelli, John L. Sullivan, P.G. Wodehouse, Robert Trout, Mario Puzo, Lee Iacocca, Mark Lenard, Jim Palmer, Richard Carpenter, Tanya Roberts, Sarah Ferguson, Emeril Lagasse, Elena Dementieva.

Today in History: Edward Gibbon observed a group of friars in 1764 singing in the ruined Temple of Jupiter in Rome, which inspires him to begin work on The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Napoleon I of France began his exile on Saint Helena in the Atlantic Ocean in 1815. American Civil War: The CSS H. L. Hunley, the first submarine to have sunk a ship, sank during a test in 1863, killing its inventor, Horace L. Hunley. The Edison Electric Light Company began operation in 1878. The airship, the Graf Zeppelin, completed its first trans-Atlantic flight in 1928, landing at Lakehurst, New Jersey, USA. Tata Airlines (later to become Air India) made its first flight in 1932. Television sitcom I Love Lucy premiered in 1951. Wayne Gretzky became in 1989 the all-time leading points scorer in the NHL. The Cassini probe was launched in 1997 from Cape Canaveral on its way to Saturn. NASA's Galileo spacecraft passed within 112 miles of Jupiter's moon Io in 2001.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/13: What’s That Smell?

bobfarley — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 06:10:28 +0000

- Commentary -

October 13, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) – Stocks finished mixed on Monday as investors contemplated upcoming earnings reports. Recovery hopes were buoyed somewhat early on, as consumer electronics giant Royal Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) posted a Q3 profit and toolmaker Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) hinted that its upcoming showing might beat expectations.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,885.80, up 20.86 points, while the broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 4.70 points. The Nasdaq composite index lost 0.14 points on the trading day, closing at 2,139.14.

The Philips news got the day off to a bright start but upcoming reports due from IBM, Google, Citigroup and Bank of America – among others – have investors feeling cautiously optimistic at best.

A weakening dollar boosted commodities, but also seemed to bolster the inflation hawks at the Fed, whose rift with their money pumping counterparts was brought to light over the weekend – a phenomenon that's as rare as a giant squid in the surf.

St. Louis Fed president James B. Bullard sounded the alarm, essentially saying that the Open Market Committee was playing chicken with a big, sudden rise in inflation by continuing its massive and unprecedented liquidity pumping.

But the, there wasn't much of a real estate bubble in St. Louis, right? What do economists think?

CNNMoney's Chris Isidore covered the polling, in an article titled, "Recession may be over, but recovery is painful." That seems to be what around 80% of economists may think, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

Isidore reports that, while most believe the recession is over, they "don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come."

Unemployment "is forecast to hit 10% during the last three months of this year, and stay there through the first quarter of 2010. By the end of next year, it's only expected to fall back down to 9.5%," according to Isidore's summary of the survey.

A third of the polled economists are anything but bullish on real estate, either, believing that "home prices won't bottom out until early 2010 or later." A quarter of them believe the low will come in the fourth quarter, says Isidore.

Keep an eye on earnings, but plant cabbages?

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session's trading showed 16 advancers versus 9 decliners. Volume leaders were led by Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 66,279,700 shares closing at $4.77 (up 3.0%), Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) trading 26,511,200 shares closing at $7.62 (up 7.0%) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) trading 22,017,900 shares closing at $18.03 (up 3.0%).

Of last session's Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) trading on volume of 11,300 shares (losing $6.806 billion), Digital River Inc. (NASDAQ: DRIV) trading on volume of 6,743,555 shares (losing $560.7 million) and DepoMed Inc. (NASDAQ: DEPO) trading on volume of 2,577,370 shares (losing $122.4 million).

Of last session's Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (NASDAQ: TSEM) trading on volume of 672,304 shares (gaining $29.2 million), Navarre Corp. (NASDAQ: NAVR) trading on volume of 242,998 shares (gaining $14.4 million) and Sinoenergy Corporation (NASDAQ: SNEN) trading on volume of 672,052 shares (gaining $8.8 million). Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" Synopses.

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists CEA Chair Christine Romer speaks at NABE conf. (7:30 a.m.), Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3&6-month bills (1 p.m.), Treasury Budget Statement (2 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ARST Investor and Financial Analyst Day; CBRL Investor Day; JCI Analyst Presentation; NOK and SYMC @ Dow Jones Newswires VentureWire Showcase Conference; WATG, ADY, HRBN, CTFO @ Roth Capital Partners China Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://soundboard.com/index.aspx

Quote of the Day: "Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't." Margaret Thatcher

Today is: Navy Day.

Happy Birthday: Art Tatum, Herbert Block, Burr Tillstrom, Nipsey Russell, Lenny Bruce, Margaret Thatcher, Paul Simon, Sammy Hagar, Ian Thorpe.

Today in History: The United States Navy was formed in 1775. In New York City, Henry Jones and 11 others founded B'nai B'rith in 1843. A majority of voters in the Republic of Texas approved in 1845 a proposed constitution, that if accepted by the U.S. Congress, would make Texas a U.S. state. Ankara replaced Constantinople as the capital of Turkey in 1923. Baseballer Bill Mazeroski, in 1960, became the first person to end a World Series with a home run.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/8: Earnings Anxiety

bobfarley — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 06:09:41 +0000

- Commentary -

October 8, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks finished mixed on Wednesday. Investors await third quarter earnings news, and there are worrying portents. The financial sector might improve, but will this be due to a few large turnarounds like AIG (NYSE: AIG)?

The Dow Jones industrial average finished the trading session at 9,725.58, down ended 5.67 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index saw a 2.86 point rise overall, ending at 1,057.58. The Nasdaq composite index rose 6.76 points, to 2,110.33.

Investors took in one good piece of news after the bell: Aluminum maker Alcoa returned to profit. The company reported a $77 million third-quarter profit, or 8 cents per share. Alcoa's news came as a surprise, and a welcome one, after three straight quarterly losses.

But, as BusinessWeek's Ben Steverman reports, there may be "less than meets the eye" in the third quarter earnings season. As Ben puts it, "The economy may be recovering, but many investors still expect mediocre corporate profits in the third quarter."

Among financials, Steverman points out that one company's big turnaround might put a halo over the sector. Insurer American International Group is expected to (almost) break even after posting a loss of nearly $10 billion a year ago.

According to Steverman's report, "With AIG included, financial sector earnings are expected to jump 57%, according to Thomson Reuters. Without AIG, analysts say financial earnings will fall 29%."

Whether this proves to be the historically significant earnings season analysts expect will have everything to do with how investors interpret weird, often contradictory statistics.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session's trading showed 17 advancers versus 8 decliners. Volume leaders were led by the E-Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) trading 40,760,227 shares closing at $1.69 (down 0.6%), the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQQ) trading 38,100,441 shares closing at $42.06 (up 0.3%) and the SPDRS Trust ETF (NYSE: SPY) trading 29,423,739 shares closing at $15.09 (up 0.3%). Of last session's Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) trading on volume of 26,400 shares (losing $7.224 billion), AirTran Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AAI) trading on volume of 4,130,500 shares (losing $93.1 million) and Scottish RE Group Ltd. (NYSE: SCT) trading on volume of 177,400 shares (losing $15.0 million). Of last session's Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by Labopharm Inc. (NASDAQ: DDSS) trading on volume of 1,502,106 shares (gaining $29.4 million), Pacific Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: PCBC) trading on volume of 614,312 shares (gaining $16.5 million) and Repros Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: RPRX) trading on volume of 6,115,770 shares (gaining $14.7 million). [Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" Synopses.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Chain Store Sales for September, Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Wholesale Inventories for August (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 30-year bonds (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases GROW @ Jefferson Companies New Orleans Investment Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.myrecipes.com

Quote of the Day: "I hear that melting pot stuff a lot, and all I can say is that we haven't melted." Reverend Jesse Jackson

Today is: Day of Independence in Croatia, World Sight Day.

Happy Birthday: Walter Kittredge, Otto Heinrich Warburg, Edward Rickenbacker, Frank Herbert, Rona Barrett, Paul Hogan, Jesse Jackson, Chevy Chase, Dennis Kucinich, Sigourney Weaver, Stephanie Zimbalist, CeCe Winans, Matt Damon, Angus T. Jones.

Today in History: Because of the implementation of the Gregorian calendar this day does not exist in 1582 in Italy, Poland, Portugal and Spain. San Marino, a nation renouned for its beautiful postage stamps, adopted its written constitution in 1600. The Second Opium War between several western powers and China began in 1856 with the Arrow Incident on the Pearl River. Four major fires broke out on the shores of Lake Michigan in 1871 in Chicago, Illinois (The Great Chicago Fire); Peshtigo, Wisconsin; Holland, Michigan; and Manistee, Michigan. Melville Fuller was sworn in as the eighth Chief Justice of the United States in 1888. Boston Bruins defenseman Billy Coutu became in 1927 the first hockey player to be suspended for life from the NHL after he started a brawl in Game 4 of the 1927 Stanley Cup and punched referee Jerry LaFlamme. The radio show, The Adventures of Ozzie and Harriet debuted in 1944.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/6: Banking On Earnings

bobfarley — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 06:09:26 +0000

- Commentary -

October 6, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Financial stocks such as Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) led stocks higher on Monday. Investors got a promising forecast on the sector's earnings potential.

The Dow Jones industrial average finished at 9,599.75, up 112.08 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 15.25 points on the trading day, to close at 1,040.46. The Nasdaq composite index rose 20.04 points, to 2,068.15.

Investors were pleased by Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden, who turned sweet on large banks, raising his coverage view from neutral to attractive. Among the biggest beneficiaries: Wells Fargo, whose stock rose 6.9% on the day.

U.S. services also got a boost after the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index rose to 50.9 for September. Anything above 50 signals confidence.

Are investors waiting for big dips in stock prices? BusinessWeek's David Bogoslaw examined the question, pointing out that, since the S&P 500 hit an intraday peak of 1,080.15 on September 23, "a wave of disappointing economic data has spooked investors." The worst of that concerned jobs, or the lack thereof.

Bogoslaw finds that the gloomy data helps reinforce a "buy the dips" mentality, in which investors, "will wait for bigger dips than the 1% or 2% daily declines they were being enticed by a few weeks ago."

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session's trading showed 22 advancers versus 3 decliners. Volume leaders were led by Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 44,999,800 shares closing at $4.67 (up 3.3 %), Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) trading 37,725,728 shares closing at $9.09 (up 18.8%) and the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQQ) trading 37,213,130 shares closing at $41.21 (down 0.8%). Of last session's Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ) trading on volume of 8,621,723 shares (losing $71.7 million), Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOLD) trading on volume of 150,948 shares (losing $65.4 million) and MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) trading on volume of 2,245,400 shares (losing $59.0 million). Of last session's Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by DepoMed Inc. (NASDAQ: DEPO) trading on volume of 1,259,915 shares (gaining $61.5 million), Radio One Inc. (NASDAQ: ROIAK) trading on volume of 229,420 shares (gaining $41.8 million) and AVI Biopharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVII) trading on volume of 4,682,762 shares (gaining $30.8 million). [Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) "Money Index" Synopses.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Treasury auctions 3-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases IRM Annual Investor Day; KSU @ Progressive Railroading RailTrends Conference; MNKD, AVII, ATHN, CADX @ JMP Securities Healthcare Focus Conference; NBR @ Deutsche Bank Fall Energy Conference; OKE and OKE Partners Investor Conference; TDW, CHK, SHAW, PTEN @ Johnson Rice Energy Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.thorheyerdahl.org/

Quote of the Day: "We must respect the other person's religion, but only in the sense and to the extent that we respect his theory that his wife is beautiful and his children smart." H. L. Mencken

Today is: Mad Hatter Day.

Happy Birthday: King Wenceslaus III, Matteo Ricci, Jenny Lind, George Westinghouse, Helen Wills Moody, Thor Heyerdahl, Britt Ekland.

Today in History: Jacopo Peri's Euridice, the earliest surviving opera, premiered in 1600 in Florence. The Great fire of Newcastle and Gateshead was ignited a little after midnight in 1854, leading to 53 deaths and hundreds of injured. The Naval War College of the United States Navy was founded in Newport, Rhode Island, in 1884. The Jazz Singer, the first prominent talking movie, debuted in 1927. Bill Sianis and his pet billy goat were ejected from Wrigley Field during Game 4 of the 1945 World Series. LSD was declared illegal in 1966 in the United States. New Premier Hua Guofeng ordered the arrest in 1976 of the Gang of Four and their associates, putting an end to the Cultural Revolution in the People's Republic of China. American singers Faith Hill and Tim McGraw married in 1996 after touring on their Spontaneous Combustion Tour.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 10/1: A Different Kind Of Company

bobfarley — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 06:07:54 +0000

- Commentary -

October 1, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks ended lower on Wednesday after getting troubling news from a closely watched economic indicator. We also heard that B of A (NYSE: BAC) CEO Ken Lewis is stepping down and GM (NYSE: GM) is closing down its Saturn brand.

The Dow Jones industrial average finished the trading session at 1,055.98, down 47.61 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 4.63 points, to close at 1,055.98. The Nasdaq composite index lost 2.20 points to finish at 2,121.84.

Chicago's purchasing managers index hit a speed bump on the road to recovery for September. The PMI unexpectedly dropped to 46.1 for the month, following gains in recent months. Dragging the index down were lousy performances in new orders and production, offset by a slight pick-up in employment.

Fifty is the magic number for the PMI, signaling health and stability. A number below that indicated contraction in the economy.

Ken Lewis might be pulling back his economy a bit in 2010. The Bank of America CEO is leaving the company at the end of 2009, a move that surprised no one. Lewis has been under fire since B of A's controversial (Glass Steagall this!) acquisition of Merrill Lynch and reports of lavish bonuses being paid at the bank while it was being bailed out by Johnny Q. Taxpayer.

In other news, G.M. will now close its Saturn brand following the collapse of a deal to offload the "Different Kind Of Car" unit to Penske Automotive. Saturn, which was borne during the reign of Roger Smith, built a loyal following in the 1990s by offering superior value and service, and building cars that were unique in the GM firmament, and not just rebadged Chevys.

Alas, the company departed from that practice in this decade, turning Saturn into just another GM division, like Pontiac.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Personal Income & Consumer Spending for August (8:30 a.m.), Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Treasury announces 30-year bond auction (9 a.m.), ISM Manufacturing Index for September (10 a.m.), Construction Spending for August (10 a.m.), Pending Home Sales for August (10 a.m.), Auto Sales for September.

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases AFL, WYNN, XEC @ Deutsche Bank Securities Leveraged Finance Conference; AIV, ESS, FRT, CLI @ Bank of America Securities Global Real Estate Conference; BTE, PWE, PQ, TRGL @ Independent Petroleum Association of America OGIS San Francisco Conference; URBN, GRMN, IMAX, ZUMZ @ Thomas Weisel Partners Consumer Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.postcards.org/postcards/cards/5750/

Quote of the Day: "When a piece gets difficult, make faces." Vladimir Horowitz

Today is: World Vegetarian Day.

Happy Birthday: King Henry III, Richard Stockton, William Boeing, Louis Untermeyer, Stanley Holloway, Walter Matthau, Vladimir Horowitz, James Whitmore, Jimmy Carter, William Rehnquist, Tom Bosley, George Peppard, Richard Harris, Julie Andrews, Stella Stevens, Rod Carew, Spider Sabich, Stephen Collins, Randy Quaid, Mark McGwire, Christopher Titus.

Today in History: Alexander the Great defeated Darius III of Persia in the Battle of Gaugamela in 331 BC. Edgar the Peaceable became king of all England in 959. The first steamboat to sail the Mississippi River arrived in New Orléans, Louisiana, in 1811. German inventor and industrialist Werner von Siemens founded in 1847 Siemens AG & Halske. Austria issued the world's first postcards in 1869. John Philip Sousa became leader of the United States Marine Corps Band in 1880. The first electric lamp factory was opened by Thomas Edison in 1880. The U.S. mint in Carson City, Nevada, closed in 1886. The Yosemite National Park was established by the U.S. Congress in 1890. The George Washington Bridge linking New Jersey and New York opened in 1931. The Pennsylvania Turnpike, often considered the first superhighway in the United States, opened to traffic in 1940. Japanese Shinkansen ("bullet trains") began high-speed rail service from Tokyo to Osaka in 1964. In what was known as the "Thrilla in Manila," Muhammad Ali defeated Joe Frazier in a boxing match in Manila, Philippines, in 1975. EPCOT Center opened in 1982 at Walt Disney World near Orlando, Florida, United States. Smoking age raised from 16 to 18 in United Kingdom in 2007.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).

FirstAlert(tm) Daily 9/29: A Gay Marriage Day

bobfarley — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:03:01 +0000

- Commentary -

September 29, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks closed higher on Monday as investors took in cheering news about some big M&A activity, including deals by Xerox (NYSE: XRX), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE; ABT) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the trading session at 9,789.36, up by 124.17 points. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 18.60 points, to close at 1,062.98, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 39.82 points, to 2,130.74.

Merger mania gripped the Street. Xerox, seeking a bigger hand in back office services, agreed to buy Affiliated Computer Services for in a deal worth $5.5 billion. Abbott Laboratories said it would buy the Belgium-based Solvay's pharma business and Johnson & Johnson bought 18% of Dutch biotech firm Crucell for $440 million.

Does all this portend strong earnings reports for companies' third and fourth quarters? Investors seem to think so. They'll look for recovery tea leaves on Tuesday, when S&P/Case-Shiller's 20-city home price index for August is due, as well as the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for September.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index for July (9 a.m.), Consumer Confidence Index for September (10 a.m.), Farm Prices for September (3 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases CXG, FXEN, GPOR, GMXR @ Independent Petroleum Association of America OGIS San Francisco Conference; FISV Annual Investor Conference; KNXA, BDSI, CBLI, CRIS @ Maxim Group Conference.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.antennaweb.org

Quote of the Day: "If I could remember the names of all these particles, I'd be a botanist." Enrico Fermi

Today is: VFW Day.

Happy Birthday: Miguel de Cervantes, Horatio Nelson, Enrico Fermi, Greer Garson, Gene Autry, Colin Dexter, Jerry Lee Lewis, Madeline Kahn, Jean-Luc Ponty, Mike Post, Bryant Gumbel, Mark Farner.

Today in History: Henry Robinson opened his Office of Addresses and Encounters in 1650 in Threadneedle Street, London. The U.S. War Department first established a regular army in 1789 with a strength of several hundred men. London's reorganized police force, the Metropolitan Police, became in 1829 the first official police department in the world. Alouette 1, the first Canadian satellite, was launched in 1962.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).